Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38107
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
cycloneye wrote:NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE (AL052006) ON 20060825 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060825 0000 060825 1200 060826 0000 060826 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 63.2W 13.4N 65.2W 14.1N 67.0W 15.0N 68.9W
BAMM 13.0N 63.2W 13.7N 65.4W 14.5N 67.2W 15.4N 69.2W
A98E 13.0N 63.2W 13.4N 66.5W 14.0N 69.4W 15.0N 71.8W
LBAR 13.0N 63.2W 13.7N 66.1W 14.2N 69.1W 14.8N 72.2W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 41KTS 50KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060827 0000 060828 0000 060829 0000 060830 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.2N 71.1W 19.3N 75.9W 21.2N 80.4W 22.3N 84.5W
BAMM 16.7N 71.3W 19.4N 75.8W 21.7N 79.6W 23.5N 82.7W
A98E 16.4N 73.9W 19.3N 78.6W 21.8N 83.3W 24.1N 87.4W
LBAR 15.9N 75.1W 19.1N 80.1W 23.1N 84.3W 23.2N 85.7W
SHIP 59KTS 75KTS 87KTS 93KTS
DSHP 59KTS 75KTS 87KTS 93KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 63.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 60.4W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 56.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 155NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Yikes at 93 kt.
I am not surprised though.
0 likes
#neversummer
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 23006
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Sanibel wrote:GFS 144 hour model doesn't show any Highs in the Gulf. It shows a recurve synoptic.
Beat me too it..
You're looking at the wrong level, look up in the mid levels and upper levels. Here's the mean flow 700-400mb for 12Z Tuesday:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby23.gif
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 54
- Joined: Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:08 pm
- Location: Minneapolis, MN
Actually...we better hope the GFS IS right and it goes onto a path into the big bend/Apalachicola area.
Anything west of Mobile would be a horrible place for this to hit...N.O./MGC area because of last year, Western Gulf because of the oil rigs and refineries.....bad if it hit Pensacola because of Ivan/Dennis....hit on Mexico is just not likely...
Anything west of Mobile would be a horrible place for this to hit...N.O./MGC area because of last year, Western Gulf because of the oil rigs and refineries.....bad if it hit Pensacola because of Ivan/Dennis....hit on Mexico is just not likely...
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
-
- Military Met
- Posts: 4372
- Age: 56
- Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
- Location: Roan Mountain, TN
Just did a comparison of the 500mb ridge from the GFS...using last nights 00z run and today's 18z run.
The slide to the east continues. Whereas it looked last night like a monster ridge would be set up over the GOM and the steering would be STX or most probably MX...now the GFS is coming around (as it always overplays these ridges in these situations) and sliding it eastward more. The ridge is still anchored over FL. I never bought the ridge over the GoM like it was dipicted last night in the 00z run at 168 hours...that's just rare for the summer.
Old 29/18Z
New 29/18Z
Old 30/12Z
New 30/12Z
The slide to the east continues. Whereas it looked last night like a monster ridge would be set up over the GOM and the steering would be STX or most probably MX...now the GFS is coming around (as it always overplays these ridges in these situations) and sliding it eastward more. The ridge is still anchored over FL. I never bought the ridge over the GoM like it was dipicted last night in the 00z run at 168 hours...that's just rare for the summer.
Old 29/18Z
New 29/18Z
Old 30/12Z
New 30/12Z
0 likes
- all_we_know_is_FALLING
- Category 1
- Posts: 417
- Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:06 pm
- Location: Somewhere over the rainbow...
- Contact:
fact789 wrote:Josephine96 wrote:If he decides to come Fla's way.. he better not make a beeline for a Tampa/St Pete landfall.
Arguably a Tampa/St Pete landfall is #2 doomsday scenario behind New Orleans
theyve done specials, it could be as bad!
Let's not get into that on this thread.
Not everyone will agree on that and yada yada.
0 likes
They tend not to follow the contour of the High, but sort of compromise into the middle of the gradient. Too close to N.O. for comfort if this pans out.
Last edited by Sanibel on Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- HouTXmetro
- Category 5
- Posts: 3949
- Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
- Location: District of Columbia, USA
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Hurricaneman, MetroMike, Stratton23, TampaWxLurker and 51 guests