Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[deltadog03]

but, can you honestly buy those models KFDM??? I mean, its not gonna bust into that ridge like that.

[boca]

Looks like the system is moving north of due west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[jenmrk]

At what point can we start taking stock in these models, being that I am in Pensacola some of these last few have me ....ummmm a bit worried to say the least....
Jen

[ericinmia]

Looks like the system is moving north of due west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Can't really use infared for that boca. But even if you did. Throw the Lat/Lon lines on the map, and it looks more NW

[TexWx]

I think the convection firing up like that makes it appear NW.

[Noles2006]

Jen - no need for big, bulgy eyes yet. In about 3 days we'll know much more about where 5/Ernesto is headin'. Probably won't be before then, IMO...

[boca]

True ericinmia I'll try that.

[ericinmia]

I think the convection firing up like that makes it appear NW.

I agree... its prob. maintaining its wnw track, just close to impossible to track at night

On the shortwave.... its more noticeable... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[Wx_Warrior]

When was the last panhandle fiasco?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

but, can you honestly buy those models KFDM??? I mean, its not gonna bust into that ridge like that.

Not alot this far out trust me. The Canadian model went from Galveston to pensacola in one run. The GFS about the same. These global models are showing a weakness developing east of Texas by Tuesday allowing Ernie to turn north, we'll see.

[jenmrk]

I think by then my eyes will have fallen out due to being glued to this computer screen.

[mj]

I agree Eric I have been looking at several sats and all seen to be above the forecasting points. Looks to my untrained eye that it is a more northerly "bump" in the system. But I could just be getting bleary eyed!
l

[TexWx]

That land interaction is really keeping this from booming

[Wx_Warrior]

yep time for bed,....ernesto madril towards the panhandle for $2000 Alex

[jenmrk]

When was the last panhandle fiasco?

Ivan Sept 15,2004

[Bailey1777]

KFDM can you see anything at all that would cause such a weakness that they are picking up on? Is it that likely?

[Wx_Warrior]

thanks jenmrk

weird date....almost 2 years if Mr. Ernesto Madril manages to spin that way.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

...We'll see what happens over the next few days. I still can't figure out why the GFS turns Ernie north. No trough there!

[MWatkins]

Just looking a the latest 0Z global guidance...the UKMET...GFS and CMC have all come together on a track that does not take TD5 due west...they have all bent northward and maintained the cyclone throughout the forecast period.

The idea that this system is going to fullback it's way into the sw shear in the sw Caribbean is essentially gone.

Now...the question is how strong will this get?

MW

[Wx_Warrior]

Time to call the Bastardi!!!!!!!