Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

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caneman

#181 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:25 am

This baby is closer to a Hurricane than a TD. Wonder if we'll seens an upgrade at 8:00 or first Visible
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rnbaida

#182 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:26 am

can someone please show me a shear map?
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#183 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:26 am

caneman wrote:This baby is closer to a Hurricane than a TD. Wonder if we'll seens an upgrade at 8:00 or first Visible


Now now.
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caneman

#184 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:26 am

rnbaida wrote:can someone please show me a shear map?


Take a look at the Water Vapor loop and you will see the ULL retreating. This isn't good.
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rnbaida

#185 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:27 am

caneman wrote:
rnbaida wrote:can someone please show me a shear map?


Take a look at the Water Vapor loop and you will see the ULL retreating. This isn't good.
That was forecasted am I right?
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caneman

#186 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:27 am

Normandy wrote:
caneman wrote:This baby is closer to a Hurricane than a TD. Wonder if we'll seens an upgrade at 8:00 or first Visible


Now now.


Wanna wager? :P
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#187 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:28 am

Boy...the 06z Canadian really took a jog east. Now it has it at Panama City, Fl!
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caneman

#188 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:28 am

rnbaida wrote:
caneman wrote:
rnbaida wrote:can someone please show me a shear map?


Take a look at the Water Vapor loop and you will see the ULL retreating. This isn't good.
That was forecasted am I right?


By some models yes, others no
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#189 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:28 am

rnbaida wrote:
caneman wrote:
rnbaida wrote:can someone please show me a shear map?


Take a look at the Water Vapor loop and you will see the ULL retreating. This isn't good.
That was forecasted am I right?


YES.
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rnbaida

#190 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:29 am

visible is almost on th system... give it 1-2 more hours before we can see a clear visible shot of the system... I am sure that this will be a TS by 11pm. The only thing i see as hurting the system may be the shear. It needs to hurry up and realx for the TD to strengthen. Lets see what happens at 11.
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caneman

#191 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:29 am

skysummit wrote:Boy...the 06z Canadian really took a jog east. Now it has it at Panama City, Fl!


A little concerning too as that was one of the few that held out the Westerly course. And it does look like the ULL is startig a retreat so if the system doesn't catch up we could be looking at some serious intensification
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#192 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:31 am

I think the NHC initialized the low incorrectly imo.....looking at the floater overlays....the "L" is located where clouds are shooting S to SSW....I think the low may be more tucked under that convection.
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rnbaida

#193 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:31 am

I wouldnt trust the CMC right now, just yesterday it had a landfall at houston,,,, now it is at pensacola beach, fl...

I think the GFDL is doing a good job on forecasting.
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#194 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:31 am

50/50 this even survives the next few days. I would not even worry about tracks after day three until it actually makes it across to the Western Caribbean.
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rnbaida

#195 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:32 am

Why doesnt the GFS develop the system al all?
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#196 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:32 am

caneman wrote:
Normandy wrote:
caneman wrote:This baby is closer to a Hurricane than a TD. Wonder if we'll seens an upgrade at 8:00 or first Visible


Now now.


Wanna wager? :P


Its barely a TS...it has no banding features whatsoever, its just a big blob.
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#197 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:33 am

rnbaida wrote:I wouldnt trust the CMC right now, just yesterday it had a landfall at houston,,,, now it is at pensacola beach, fl...

I think the GFDL is doing a good job on forecasting.


No, now it's at Panama City....actually in between Panama City and Appalachicola. That's too much of a big jog. The 06z GFS still has no clue to what's going on.
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rnbaida

#198 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:33 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:50/50 this even survives the next few days. I would not even worry about tracks after day three until it actually makes it across to the Western Caribbean.


that is what i am talking about right now... Shear is the main problem right now.. I have a feeling that it will likely make it through and head into the gulf.
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#199 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:33 am

I saw that Canadian run, but not sold on it yet either. We've got to give these models another day or so to get a handle on things here.
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#200 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:34 am

Dean4Storms wrote:I saw that Canadian run, but not sold on it yet either. We've got to give these models another day or so to get a handle on things here.


EWG won't be too happy when he sees that run :lol:
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