Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
caneman

#181 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:25 am

This baby is closer to a Hurricane than a TD. Wonder if we'll seens an upgrade at 8:00 or first Visible
0 likes   
Top
rnbaida

#182 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:26 am

can someone please show me a shear map?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#183 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:26 am

caneman wrote:This baby is closer to a Hurricane than a TD. Wonder if we'll seens an upgrade at 8:00 or first Visible


Now now.
0 likes   
Top
caneman

#184 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:26 am

rnbaida wrote:can someone please show me a shear map?


Take a look at the Water Vapor loop and you will see the ULL retreating. This isn't good.
0 likes   
Top
rnbaida

#185 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:27 am

caneman wrote:
rnbaida wrote:can someone please show me a shear map?


Take a look at the Water Vapor loop and you will see the ULL retreating. This isn't good.
That was forecasted am I right?
0 likes   
Top
caneman

#186 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:27 am

Normandy wrote:
caneman wrote:This baby is closer to a Hurricane than a TD. Wonder if we'll seens an upgrade at 8:00 or first Visible


Now now.


Wanna wager? :P
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#187 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:28 am

Boy...the 06z Canadian really took a jog east. Now it has it at Panama City, Fl!
0 likes   
Top
caneman

#188 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:28 am

rnbaida wrote:
caneman wrote:
rnbaida wrote:can someone please show me a shear map?


Take a look at the Water Vapor loop and you will see the ULL retreating. This isn't good.
That was forecasted am I right?


By some models yes, others no
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#189 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:28 am

rnbaida wrote:
caneman wrote:
rnbaida wrote:can someone please show me a shear map?


Take a look at the Water Vapor loop and you will see the ULL retreating. This isn't good.
That was forecasted am I right?


YES.
0 likes   
Top
rnbaida

#190 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:29 am

visible is almost on th system... give it 1-2 more hours before we can see a clear visible shot of the system... I am sure that this will be a TS by 11pm. The only thing i see as hurting the system may be the shear. It needs to hurry up and realx for the TD to strengthen. Lets see what happens at 11.
0 likes   
Top
caneman

#191 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:29 am

skysummit wrote:Boy...the 06z Canadian really took a jog east. Now it has it at Panama City, Fl!


A little concerning too as that was one of the few that held out the Westerly course. And it does look like the ULL is startig a retreat so if the system doesn't catch up we could be looking at some serious intensification
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#192 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:31 am

I think the NHC initialized the low incorrectly imo.....looking at the floater overlays....the "L" is located where clouds are shooting S to SSW....I think the low may be more tucked under that convection.
0 likes   
Top
rnbaida

#193 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:31 am

I wouldnt trust the CMC right now, just yesterday it had a landfall at houston,,,, now it is at pensacola beach, fl...

I think the GFDL is doing a good job on forecasting.
0 likes   
Top
Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:
Contact Stratosphere747

#194 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:31 am

50/50 this even survives the next few days. I would not even worry about tracks after day three until it actually makes it across to the Western Caribbean.
0 likes   
Top
rnbaida

#195 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:32 am

Why doesnt the GFS develop the system al all?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#196 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:32 am

caneman wrote:
Normandy wrote:
caneman wrote:This baby is closer to a Hurricane than a TD. Wonder if we'll seens an upgrade at 8:00 or first Visible


Now now.


Wanna wager? :P


Its barely a TS...it has no banding features whatsoever, its just a big blob.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#197 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:33 am

rnbaida wrote:I wouldnt trust the CMC right now, just yesterday it had a landfall at houston,,,, now it is at pensacola beach, fl...

I think the GFDL is doing a good job on forecasting.


No, now it's at Panama City....actually in between Panama City and Appalachicola. That's too much of a big jog. The 06z GFS still has no clue to what's going on.
0 likes   
Top
rnbaida

#198 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:33 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:50/50 this even survives the next few days. I would not even worry about tracks after day three until it actually makes it across to the Western Caribbean.


that is what i am talking about right now... Shear is the main problem right now.. I have a feeling that it will likely make it through and head into the gulf.
0 likes   
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#199 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:33 am

I saw that Canadian run, but not sold on it yet either. We've got to give these models another day or so to get a handle on things here.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#200 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:34 am

Dean4Storms wrote:I saw that Canadian run, but not sold on it yet either. We've got to give these models another day or so to get a handle on things here.


EWG won't be too happy when he sees that run :lol:
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: MetroMike, Teban54 and 50 guests