Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[bostonseminole]

I used the shortwave IR sat.

link please

[terstorm1012]

Did anyone notice that nasty bit of shear (evidenced by cirrus clouds moving east) coming off Panama this morning?

I would be shocked to see TD 5 become anything more then a moderate TS over the next couple days.

[x-y-no]

This from the preliminarly long-range discussion at HPC this morning:

AS FOR T.D. 5...MANUAL PROGS FOLLOW THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST AND
THEN LATCH ONTO THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE NHC TRACK
DAYS 3/MON - 5/WED. THE 00Z ECMWF ALLOWS THE SYS TO MEET A BREAK
IN THE RIDGE TO ITS N DAYS 6/THURS AND 7/FRI...CURVING THE SYS
NNEWD. THE GFS SOLN IS SIMILAR...BUT WEAKER. CLIMATOLOGICAL FAN
BASE ON PAST SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR TPCS DAY 5 POSITION RANGES FROM
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL TX COAST IF THE SYSTEM GETS
THAT FAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW UNTIL MEDR COORD W/TPC LATER TODAY.

If they're leaning towards the Euro, this makes sense as it moves the mid-level ridge eastward off the coast beginning days 4-5 and there's a weakness behind that.

If I were on the northern Gulf coast, I'd be getting a bit more concerned as the trend seems to be more in that direction rather than the straight WNW track which seemed more likely a couple of days ago.

[boca]

Here's the link.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html

[caneman]

This from the preliminarly long-range discussion at HPC this morning:

AS FOR T.D. 5...MANUAL PROGS FOLLOW THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST AND
THEN LATCH ONTO THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE NHC TRACK
DAYS 3/MON - 5/WED. THE 00Z ECMWF ALLOWS THE SYS TO MEET A BREAK
IN THE RIDGE TO ITS N DAYS 6/THURS AND 7/FRI...CURVING THE SYS
NNEWD. THE GFS SOLN IS SIMILAR...BUT WEAKER. CLIMATOLOGICAL FAN
BASE ON PAST SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR TPCS DAY 5 POSITION RANGES FROM
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL TX COAST IF THE SYSTEM GETS
THAT FAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW UNTIL MEDR COORD W/TPC LATER TODAY.

If they're leaning towards the Euro, this makes sense as it moves the mid-level ridge eastward off the coast beginning days 4-5 and there's a weakness behind that.

If I were on the northern Gulf coast, I'd be getting a bit more concerned as the trend seems to be more in that direction rather than the straight WNW track which seemed more likely a couple of days ago.

Anyone have a link to this model?

[jasons2k]

Just glanced at the water vapor loop real quick before leaving for work - pretty surprised this is still a TD.

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't know how to shorten this. But if a mod can do it it would be helpful.

This shows where the LLC is with in the rain.


http://tinyurl.co.uk/ku1z


*edited by Rainband to shorten Link*

[Derek Ortt]

the "center" which seems to be a wave axis this morning, is not underneath the convection by any stretch of the imagination (well, it could be by imagination)

[stormernie]

The center seems to be near 13.8N 65.4W under the deep convention, if this is the case than we have a TS and possibly a strong one at that.

[HouTXmetro]

So Ernesto has fallen apart?

[HURAKAN]

So Ernesto has fallen apart?

Where do you see that?

[DESTRUCTION5]

So Ernesto has fallen apart?

I don't think so..Im with Ernie this time...Those Coords look good to me and i think we have Ernesto

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Isn't it pretty likely that the center will relocate a couple of times like they seem to do in all new/developing systems? There is probably a better midlevel rotation in the heaviest convection now and a new center will probably reform closer to that with lost of littel eddies vying for control until that happens. The other option woudl be for the original center to slow up a little bit and as it does so, the main convection to "catch up" to it and reinvigorate it.

By the time the storm gets to the western carribean where all that bad shear is... it won't be so bad anymore. I think it will only have to contend with 15-25kt shear at the most by the end of the day today. And as long as it doesn't move too fast, it shouldn't have to encounter anythign greater than that on its journey for quite a while. In fact, conditions may get far far better if it can do the squeeze play between 2 venting ULL's.

[Aquawind]

So Ernesto has fallen apart?

No. It's not Ernesto yet.. Some good convection but stacking is still in question with a "center" on the edge of the convection..

[storms in NC]

It is to be a hurricane when it get near Kingtons. I hope I spelled that right

[Thunder44]

So Ernesto has fallen apart?

Where do you see that?

I think he's refering to Derek's commets. The QS pass shows more of wave axis this morning, but I would wait for recon to confirm the center opened up.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think another LLC is forming under the convection...The inflow is strong around 63 west...In starting to move into the convectoin on the west side. I believe its near 65.2-65.3 west.

[HURAKAN]

It is to be a hurricane when it get near Kingtons. I hope I spelled that right

My Geography book says "Kingston"

[sealbach]

models

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif