Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
bostonseminole
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 209
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Tokyo, Japan

#261 Postby bostonseminole » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:27 am

boca wrote:I used the shortwave IR sat.


link please
0 likes   

User avatar
terstorm1012
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1314
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm
Location: Millersburg, PA

#262 Postby terstorm1012 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:27 am

Did anyone notice that nasty bit of shear (evidenced by cirrus clouds moving east) coming off Panama this morning?

I would be shocked to see TD 5 become anything more then a moderate TS over the next couple days.
0 likes   

User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#263 Postby x-y-no » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:28 am

This from the preliminarly long-range discussion at HPC this morning:

AS FOR T.D. 5...MANUAL PROGS FOLLOW THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST AND
THEN LATCH ONTO THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE NHC TRACK
DAYS 3/MON - 5/WED. THE 00Z ECMWF ALLOWS THE SYS TO MEET A BREAK
IN THE RIDGE TO ITS N DAYS 6/THURS AND 7/FRI...CURVING THE SYS
NNEWD. THE GFS SOLN IS SIMILAR...BUT WEAKER. CLIMATOLOGICAL FAN
BASE ON PAST SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR TPCS DAY 5 POSITION RANGES FROM
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL TX COAST IF THE SYSTEM GETS
THAT FAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW UNTIL MEDR COORD W/TPC LATER TODAY.


If they're leaning towards the Euro, this makes sense as it moves the mid-level ridge eastward off the coast beginning days 4-5 and there's a weakness behind that.

If I were on the northern Gulf coast, I'd be getting a bit more concerned as the trend seems to be more in that direction rather than the straight WNW track which seemed more likely a couple of days ago.
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6369
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#264 Postby boca » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:29 am

0 likes   

caneman

#265 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:31 am

x-y-no wrote:This from the preliminarly long-range discussion at HPC this morning:

AS FOR T.D. 5...MANUAL PROGS FOLLOW THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST AND
THEN LATCH ONTO THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE NHC TRACK
DAYS 3/MON - 5/WED. THE 00Z ECMWF ALLOWS THE SYS TO MEET A BREAK
IN THE RIDGE TO ITS N DAYS 6/THURS AND 7/FRI...CURVING THE SYS
NNEWD. THE GFS SOLN IS SIMILAR...BUT WEAKER. CLIMATOLOGICAL FAN
BASE ON PAST SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR TPCS DAY 5 POSITION RANGES FROM
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL TX COAST IF THE SYSTEM GETS
THAT FAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW UNTIL MEDR COORD W/TPC LATER TODAY.


If they're leaning towards the Euro, this makes sense as it moves the mid-level ridge eastward off the coast beginning days 4-5 and there's a weakness behind that.

If I were on the northern Gulf coast, I'd be getting a bit more concerned as the trend seems to be more in that direction rather than the straight WNW track which seemed more likely a couple of days ago.


Anyone have a link to this model?
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

#266 Postby jasons2k » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:31 am

Just glanced at the water vapor loop real quick before leaving for work - pretty surprised this is still a TD.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#267 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:31 am

Image
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#268 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:31 am

I don't know how to shorten this. But if a mod can do it it would be helpful.

This shows where the LLC is with in the rain.


http://tinyurl.co.uk/ku1z


*edited by Rainband to shorten Link* :)
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#269 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:32 am

the "center" which seems to be a wave axis this morning, is not underneath the convection by any stretch of the imagination (well, it could be by imagination)
0 likes   

stormernie

#270 Postby stormernie » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:37 am

The center seems to be near 13.8N 65.4W under the deep convention, if this is the case than we have a TS and possibly a strong one at that.
0 likes   

User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#271 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:38 am

So Ernesto has fallen apart?
0 likes   
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#272 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:39 am

HouTXmetro wrote:So Ernesto has fallen apart?


Where do you see that?
0 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#273 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:40 am

HouTXmetro wrote:So Ernesto has fallen apart?


I don't think so..Im with Ernie this time...Those Coords look good to me and i think we have Ernesto
0 likes   

User avatar
TreasureIslandFLGal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1581
Age: 57
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 6:16 pm
Location: Clearwater, Florida ~3 miles from the coast now. We finally moved safely off the barrier island!

#274 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:40 am

Isn't it pretty likely that the center will relocate a couple of times like they seem to do in all new/developing systems? There is probably a better midlevel rotation in the heaviest convection now and a new center will probably reform closer to that with lost of littel eddies vying for control until that happens. The other option woudl be for the original center to slow up a little bit and as it does so, the main convection to "catch up" to it and reinvigorate it.

By the time the storm gets to the western carribean where all that bad shear is... it won't be so bad anymore. I think it will only have to contend with 15-25kt shear at the most by the end of the day today. And as long as it doesn't move too fast, it shouldn't have to encounter anythign greater than that on its journey for quite a while. In fact, conditions may get far far better if it can do the squeeze play between 2 venting ULL's.
0 likes   

User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:

#275 Postby Aquawind » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:41 am

HouTXmetro wrote:So Ernesto has fallen apart?


No. It's not Ernesto yet.. Some good convection but stacking is still in question with a "center" on the edge of the convection..
0 likes   

User avatar
storms in NC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
Contact:

#276 Postby storms in NC » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:41 am

It is to be a hurricane when it get near Kingtons. I hope I spelled that right
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#277 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:41 am

HURAKAN wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:So Ernesto has fallen apart?


Where do you see that?


I think he's refering to Derek's commets. The QS pass shows more of wave axis this morning, but I would wait for recon to confirm the center opened up.
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#278 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:43 am

I think another LLC is forming under the convection...The inflow is strong around 63 west...In starting to move into the convectoin on the west side. I believe its near 65.2-65.3 west.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#279 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:43 am

storms in NC wrote:It is to be a hurricane when it get near Kingtons. I hope I spelled that right


My Geography book says "Kingston" :D
0 likes   

sealbach
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 4:25 pm
Location: Houston, Tx

#280 Postby sealbach » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:43 am

0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Hurricaneman, MetroMike, Stratton23 and 50 guests