Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5
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- Tropical Low
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- Cape Verde
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Re: hi
Dave C wrote:Latest Infrared loop shows the deep convection is not moving as quickly to the west as earlier as the shear impacts the system. There is the typical sharp edge to the west part of the convection from the shear while the east part has a more rounded appearence. This will definately need to be a fighter to survive today.
I hope it's not and turns out to be just another Chris. I like what I'm seeing so far this morning but tropical systems are known to throw curve balls at you.
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gatorcane wrote:Stormcenter wrote:jlauderdal wrote:Bocadude85 wrote:Looks like the Gfdl has this system coming pretty close or going right over the Florida Keys
if that track were to verify easter cooba could do a great deal of damabge to the system. i suspect this system will stay south of cooba.
If it makes there in one piece.
once the system made it back over the warm Florida straits it would take no time to regenerate. You can't rely on Cuba saving Florida...its a small island albeit with large mountains on the eastern side.
whoaa nellie, we are getting way ahead of ourselves, it has to survive the trip, it has to find a weakness to get that far north, it has to stay over water with minimal disruptian from cooba and we these UL lowes which seem to be the feature of the season and are always very hard to predict have to stay far enough away.
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- cycloneye
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TPNT KGWC 251300
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
B. 25/1131Z (71)
C. 13.4N/8
D. 64.6W/6
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.5/2.5/STT: D1.0/12HRS -25/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON
THE LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 2.5.
FT IS BASED ON DT. PT SUPPORTS.
AODT: 3.0 (UCCR)
PRATO/WEAVER
Air Force Sat Estimates
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
B. 25/1131Z (71)
C. 13.4N/8
D. 64.6W/6
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.5/2.5/STT: D1.0/12HRS -25/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON
THE LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 2.5.
FT IS BASED ON DT. PT SUPPORTS.
AODT: 3.0 (UCCR)
PRATO/WEAVER
Air Force Sat Estimates
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Cape Verde wrote:Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The Gfs 200 millibar maps shows the tutt moving to 75-77 west in 24 hours.
I keep seeing mentions of "tutt" or "TUTT". I've tried to guess what that means, but I'm failing.
Can someone explain? Thanks.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
See that area of lighter shear inbetween the two increases at about 78 west. Which is kind of like a V over the central Caribbean. That is a tutt. Which should be moving westward in weaking.
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- Military Met
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gatorcane wrote:Bailey1777 wrote:I didn't mean landfall thoughts I meant why the models are changing by thousands of miles in a very short period.
What do you expect there is no center yet. How can the models be consistent without an initialization (in computer terms uninitialized variables cause random behavior).
That track will probably flip-flop back and forth so don't go by that track quite yet.
WHAT?
You don't get to be a TD without having a center. Remember the vortex message yesterday? That means there is a center.
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- Military Met
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Air Force Met wrote:Cape Verde wrote:Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The Gfs 200 millibar maps shows the tutt moving to 75-77 west in 24 hours.
I keep seeing mentions of "tutt" or "TUTT". I've tried to guess what that means, but I'm failing.
Can someone explain? Thanks.
GOOGLE.
Also, there's a new forum here "Got a question..." Someone already asked tihs question there. YOu might go take a look over there at the answer and ask some clrifying questions if it doesn't make sense.
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- ConvergenceZone
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skysummit wrote:LOL....these posts are getting hilarious. Half the board is saying this will have a hard time surving the shear today and the other half says it's getting better organized with high pressure building aloft.
Hell, I don't know what it's doing anymore, although I have seen plenty of systems in the past overcome shear, it's happened alot....
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- cycloneye
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25/1145 UTC 13.6N 66.1W T2.5/2.5 05L -- Atlantic Ocean
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- BensonTCwatcher
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The wall of shear is at 72 west...With a Anticyclone forming over the system now. 10-20 knots decrease over system. 10 knot area increasing in size. The gfs shows this wall going to 77 west by 24 hours. If this slow system slow down then this will get its act together.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Matt's scenario certianly seems plausible. Looking at the relative motions of the synoptic features, it makes sense over 24-36 hours. Everything depends on speed. If the slower motion keeps TD5 in the "pocket" long enough, the quicker development i.e. increasing height of the system woudl play heavily on the models tracking. We would also be talking about a more dangerous scenario of a stronger storm on a more northerly track.
Of course, another change in speed might have this system resemble an egg in a blender
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