Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[Stormcenter]

Well officially Jeff Masters is incorrect...we'll have to wait for a plane.

Did you get access to the 11AM advisory already?

I can neither confirm nor deny that.

Air Force Met you are not on trial here.

[boca]

If the models are correct and the storm follows that course the panhandle and west coast are safe, but still too early because the models can shift northward. I hope for our friends in Katrina and Rita alley that this system doesn't become a major because the whole country will be feeling the impact.

[tailgater]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=479&tstamp=200608 Jeff masters thinks we have Ernesto

Well officially Jeff Masters is incorrect...we'll have to wait for a plane.

The center is very hard to find.

Chad Myers at CNN just a little while also thought it would be named at 11am.

Well...Chad Myers is wrong too, it won't be.

I think you are enjoying this.

[CajunMama]

Another reminder please.... http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88664

If you want to chitchat join chat or post here... http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88651

There are those who don't have the time to weed through alot of these posts to find information on td5

[wxman57]

So do you believe it will survive any shear that may impact it and make it into the GOM as a hurricane?

That's a good question. Strong SW winds in its path. I think it may make it. If it does, then not much to stop it from strengthening in the Gulf.

[Bailey1777]

AFM, I am starting to see some of the people who have the know how on this board questioning whether this is even a closed system anymore. What's your thought on it?

[NESDIS Met]

What we're most worried about at this point is that TD 5 will, after struggling to survive its passage through the Central Caribbean, find itself in an area of extremely favorable conditions once S-SW of the Isla of Youth, Cuba, several models and objective analysis also show the potential for a degree of ventilation that is rarely seen with Atl storms. So what is unable to kill off TD 5 may in fact make him eventually all the more dangerous.

[MDsempra]

Air Force Met,

Do you think its not going to get upgraded, because its deteriorating?

MD

[Portastorm]

What we're most worried about at this point is that TD 5 will, after struggling to survive its passage through the Central Caribbean, find itself in an area of extremely favorable conditions once S-SW of the Isla of Youth, Cuba, several models and objective analysis also show the potential for a degree of ventilation that is rarely seen with Atl storms. So what is unable to kill off TD 5 may in fact make him eventually all the more dangerous.

This sounds very similar to what JB posted last night in his column update. Also see matt-hurricane watcher's post from earlier today about the same thought.

[cpdaman]

well this is a small SIZE storm, that is probably a factor why the center is difficult to pick up easily

[Air Force Met]

So do you believe it will survive any shear that may impact it and make it into the GOM as a hurricane?

That's a good question. Strong SW winds in its path. I think it may make it. If it does, then not much to stop it from strengthening in the Gulf.

I agree with that. IF the system makes it til Sunday...then it should be good to go. Making it til Sunday will be the hard part. Realistically the intensity forecast from the NHC probably should not be steady strengthening. IT should be weak until the shear relaxes and then a ramp up.

[stormernie]

We will need to wait til 11AM or maybe recon, but in studing the loops this morning the center seem tohave redevelop a little ene of the previous center. We will wait and see.

['CaneFreak]

People, people, people.....The only reason we're not saying it will be upgraded is because NO ONE knows where the center is!!!! If you can find a center over the convection, its a TS...But no one can find one; therefore, being as conservative as the NHC is, they will NOT upgrade it at this time until they have official word from recon!!!!

[Derek Ortt]

SHIPS insists that the shear will relax by this time tomorrow, but I find that extremely hard to believe

[x-y-no]

Well officially Jeff Masters is incorrect...we'll have to wait for a plane.

Did you get access to the 11AM advisory already?

I can neither confirm nor deny that.

And if you did and you were caought or killed, the Secretary would deny any knowledge of your actions.


I'd say it's a bit of a dilemma since the thing has a lot of potent convection going and a large area of strong winds to the NE - but strictly speaking they shouldn't upgrade it yet.

And given that recon goes in this afternoon and no land is imminently thraetened, there's really no harm in six hours of delay.

[Javlin]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Looking at the WV loop It sure looks tuff that TD5 even makes it out of Carib alive.I kinda see what Derek was mentioning about the UL that started getting itself together yesterday 10'N of TD5.It seems to act like an afterburner for the main TUTT out front over Cuba,it's jettisoning the Shear further downstream.That UL 10'N of TD5 is moving at the same rate as TD5,unless TD5 slows some "how does it ever go N".This has been the year of ULL and TUTTs an interesting synoptic pattern to evolve.That most certainly well play with the models I would think.

['CaneFreak]

SHIPS insists that the shear will relax by this time tomorrow, but I find that extremely hard to believe

Why? You don't see the upper level low heading westward and the dual outflow channels possibly setting up 48-72 hours down the road?

[Thunder44]

It still says NONAME on NRL so I don't think they will upgrade it.

[AtlanticWind]

I think they would upgrade but may wait since a plane will be out shortly

[Air Force Met]

AFM, I am starting to see some of the people who have the know how on this board questioning whether this is even a closed system anymore. What's your thought on it?

Its difficult to say. It looks like an elongated wave...BUT...it is possible that the place will find the center is not near 13.5/66.4...but actually tucked back under the convection near 65W and 14N..which would be a big diff for the system...meaning its a lot healthier than it looks...and it would explain the NNE wind from the ship near the center...that indicates the LLC is very weak.