Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

#161 Postby **lido** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:04 pm

It's kinda funny, but with the tracks aiming for the general La area this far out, I actually feel safe! It's like having someone who can't shoot aim at you-it's the safest place to be!

Innotech · #162 Postby **Innotech** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:05 pm

lido wrote:It's kinda funny, but with the tracks aiming for the general La area this far out, I actually feel safe! It's like having someone who can't shoot aim at you-it's the safest place to be!

err....I wouldnt let your guard down......not yet.

Rainband · #163 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:06 pm

Dark Grey area. To an amateur that would look like an eye :lol:

HurricaneHunter914 · #164 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:07 pm

I don't like how the track continues to shift eastward. If it continues, the FL Panhandle will have to deal with another TS/Possible Hurricane.

#165 Postby **lido** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:07 pm

Nah, I stay prepared now, year-round. Courtesy of Katrina

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #166 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:08 pm

Can't wait intill the recon gets there...We might find our selfs a stronger cyclone! 8-)

Rainband · #167 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:09 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Can't wait intill the recon gets there...We might find our selfs a stronger cyclone!

I agree. I think this is looking beter and better by the Hour.

Opal storm · #168 Postby **Opal storm** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:10 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I don't like how the track continues to shift eastward. If it continues, the FL Panhandle will have to deal with another TS/Possible Hurricane.

Way too soon to tell where this will hit along the GC.I'm actually not concerned about this storm right now,I'll wait till it nears the NW Carib and then I will be more interested in the track.The models will shift south and north over and over again and drive everybody crazy lol.

HurricaneHunter914 · #169 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:11 pm

Way too soon to tell where this will hit along the GC.I'm actually not concerned about this storm right now,I'll wait till it nears the NW Carib and then I will be more interested in the track.The models will shift south and north over and over again and drive everybody crazy lol.

I said IF.

dwg71 · #170 Postby **dwg71** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:19 pm

could someone send me a spaghetti model link?

#171 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:20 pm

I'm not as optimistic about its appearance as many of you. I tracked the center with high-res visible on a very large screen with 1-deg lat/lon lines all day. The LLC was clearly west of the NHC's 5PM EDT forecast position, well ahead of the convection. Here's a recent satellite with my estimate of the LLC/MLC positions. Can't really see the LLC any more on the IR image, I extrapolated from the previous visible image:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto32.jpg

robbielyn · #172 Postby **robbielyn** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:21 pm

theworld wrote:
robbielyn wrote:unless they are just over confident and the scripted tv said tropical storm and they just read through it too fast thinking they knew what it said or the person who typed it is clueless.

I work in Live TV. They read off pre-written Tele-prompter in front of them. Must have been an Anchor your referring to and not Local Weather forcaster.

I think that is what they were talking about. I don't think a wx forecaster would be so careless. I was just responding to what they said about cnn. I couldn't think of a teleprompter so I said scripted tv. but that is what I meant.

miamicanes177 · #173 Postby **miamicanes177** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:21 pm

dwg71 wrote:could someone send me a spaghetti model link?

18z models
main site

Stratosphere747 · #174 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:22 pm

Has there been any mention of when the NOAA flights may begin.

Have not seen any info....

dwg71 · #175 Postby **dwg71** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:22 pm

I'm getting an access denied message at that link canes fan.

Go Bucks (tOSU)!

Mac · #176 Postby **Mac** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:23 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm not as optimistic about its appearance as many of you. I tracked the center with high-res visible on a very large screen with 1-deg lat/lon lines all day. The LLC was clearly west of the NHC's 5PM EDT forecast position, well ahead of the convection. Here's a recent satellite with my estimate of the LLC/MLC positions. Can't really see the LLC any more on the IR image, I extrapolated from the previous visible image:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto32.jpg

Ohhhh, quit being a party pooper. The convection will catch up tonight. Just give the little feller a chance to catch his breath.

#177 Postby **MississippiHurricane** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:25 pm

try this: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

robbielyn · #178 Postby **robbielyn** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:25 pm

dwg71 wrote:could someone send me a spaghetti model link?

here you go http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Extremeweatherguy · #179 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:26 pm

robbielyn wrote:unless they are just over confident and the scripted tv said tropical storm and they just read through it too fast thinking they knew what it said or the person who typed it is clueless.

they also had a graphic that said "Hurricane Ernesto" too, but then it switched back to TS Ernesto about 10 seconds later when it went to another screen.

Derek Ortt · #180 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:26 pm

I dont think the center is at 69W. If so, this thing has increased its forward speed to about 25KT.

However, I do agree that this remains a highly sheared marginal TS and the shear is showing no signs of abating at the present time

Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

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