Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread
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I don't like how the track continues to shift eastward. If it continues, the FL Panhandle will have to deal with another TS/Possible Hurricane.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Way too soon to tell where this will hit along the GC.I'm actually not concerned about this storm right now,I'll wait till it nears the NW Carib and then I will be more interested in the track.The models will shift south and north over and over again and drive everybody crazy lol.HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I don't like how the track continues to shift eastward. If it continues, the FL Panhandle will have to deal with another TS/Possible Hurricane.
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Way too soon to tell where this will hit along the GC.I'm actually not concerned about this storm right now,I'll wait till it nears the NW Carib and then I will be more interested in the track.The models will shift south and north over and over again and drive everybody crazy lol.
I said IF.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- wxman57
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I'm not as optimistic about its appearance as many of you. I tracked the center with high-res visible on a very large screen with 1-deg lat/lon lines all day. The LLC was clearly west of the NHC's 5PM EDT forecast position, well ahead of the convection. Here's a recent satellite with my estimate of the LLC/MLC positions. Can't really see the LLC any more on the IR image, I extrapolated from the previous visible image:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto32.jpg
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto32.jpg
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theworld wrote:robbielyn wrote:unless they are just over confident and the scripted tv said tropical storm and they just read through it too fast thinking they knew what it said or the person who typed it is clueless.
I work in Live TV. They read off pre-written Tele-prompter in front of them. Must have been an Anchor your referring to and not Local Weather forcaster.
I think that is what they were talking about. I don't think a wx forecaster would be so careless. I was just responding to what they said about cnn. I couldn't think of a teleprompter so I said scripted tv. but that is what I meant.
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Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.

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wxman57 wrote:I'm not as optimistic about its appearance as many of you. I tracked the center with high-res visible on a very large screen with 1-deg lat/lon lines all day. The LLC was clearly west of the NHC's 5PM EDT forecast position, well ahead of the convection. Here's a recent satellite with my estimate of the LLC/MLC positions. Can't really see the LLC any more on the IR image, I extrapolated from the previous visible image:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto32.jpg
Ohhhh, quit being a party pooper. The convection will catch up tonight. Just give the little feller a chance to catch his breath.

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- MississippiHurricane
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dwg71 wrote:could someone send me a spaghetti model link?
here you go http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif
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Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.

- Extremeweatherguy
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they also had a graphic that said "Hurricane Ernesto" too, but then it switched back to TS Ernesto about 10 seconds later when it went to another screen.robbielyn wrote:unless they are just over confident and the scripted tv said tropical storm and they just read through it too fast thinking they knew what it said or the person who typed it is clueless.
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