Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[wxman57]

could someone send me a spaghetti model link?

Without BAMM/BAMD/BAMS/LBAR/XTRAP:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto33.gif

With the non-dynamic BAM models & LBAR
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto34.gif

[robbielyn]

I dont think the center is at 69W. If so, this thing has increased its forward speed to about 25KT.

However, I do agree that this remains a highly sheared marginal TS and the shear is showing no signs of abating at the present time

Give it 13 hours. Should lighten up a bit. That ull situated over cuba is weakening. It will clear up some.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I dont think the center is at 69W. If so, this thing has increased its forward speed to about 25KT.

However, I do agree that this remains a highly sheared marginal TS and the shear is showing no signs of abating at the present time

Sine the ULL is clearly moving west on water vapor, what else is shearing it right now?

[Derek Ortt]

UL is not mvoing that much to the west

And everyone is watching the wrong UL. Its the UL near 25N and 65W that could cause the most advsrse conditions

[Stratosphere747]

Not to mention the fact that too many folks are so worried an a landfall point 6/7 days out, that they can't keep any type of objectivity.

Take a deep breath and learn a few things, at least till it gets near the Yucatan/Cuba...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I agree with Derek, i see what your seeing..

[curtadams]

I'm not as optimistic about its appearance as many of you. I tracked the center with high-res visible on a very large screen with 1-deg lat/lon lines all day. The LLC was clearly west of the NHC's 5PM EDT forecast position, well ahead of the convection. Here's a recent satellite with my estimate of the LLC/MLC positions. Can't really see the LLC any more on the IR image, I extrapolated from the previous visible image:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto32.jpg

I haven't been tracking but I can estimate the LLC from rotation of low clouds popping out at nightfall on IR2. I'd roughly agree with your position but I would put it a shade closer - the LLC is distinctly under the CDO. However, what's really impressing me is the rapid growth of the LLC, which now encompasses the entire E Caribbean. That suggests to me that it's moving more air than the decent but not fantastic central IR presention indicates.

[wxman57]

I dont think the center is at 69W. If so, this thing has increased its forward speed to about 25KT.

However, I do agree that this remains a highly sheared marginal TS and the shear is showing no signs of abating at the present time

This is the last good visible image that coincides with the NHC 4pm CDT forecast time. Looks like a clear LLC (easier to see on loops) near 14.9N/68 or 68.1W. Their forecast position for 4pm CDT was 14.3N/67.6W, but that position would be on the outer ring of the low-level vortex to the southeast.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto35.jpg

Since 3:45pm CDT, the LLC has moved to about 68.6-68.7W and is near 15N. Can't really find it on IR imagery, though. Could be the NHC used a position midway between the LLC and MLC for their last forecast start point.

[ConvergenceZone]

so far the storm is surviving though, that's the key. Every hour which goes by in which it's still at least a depression increases the threat.

[Brent]

I don't think it'll strengthen much tonight or tomorrow, but I don't think it'll weaken either.

[Stormcenter]

UL is not mvoing that much to the west

And everyone is watching the wrong UL. Its the UL near 25N and 65W that could cause the most advsrse conditions

Correct.

[Extremeweatherguy]

UL is not mvoing that much to the west

And everyone is watching the wrong UL. Its the UL near 25N and 65W that could cause the most advsrse conditions

Correct.

Isn't an anti-cyclone expected to develop over the western Gulf in a day or two? That is what I keep hearing. Wouldn't that mean a prime area for this to develop further?

[wxman57]

I haven't been tracking but I can estimate the LLC from rotation of low clouds popping out at nightfall on IR2. I'd roughly agree with your position but I would put it a shade closer - the LLC is distinctly under the CDO. However, what's really impressing me is the rapid growth of the LLC, which now encompasses the entire E Caribbean. That suggests to me that it's moving more air than the decent but not fantastic central IR presention indicates.

I just don't see the LLC under the CDO. Looks like the LLC is 60-70 nm. WNW of the CDO ahead of the cirrus shield. All I've been doing is staring at that thing since 4:30 this morning. It's about impossible to see the LLC with IR imagery, though. I can't find it now, as all I can see are mid and high clouds. It does appear to be moving rather quickly, and on a track to the right of the NHC forecast. Not far from the GFDL forecast, actually.

[Scorpion]

UL is not mvoing that much to the west

And everyone is watching the wrong UL. Its the UL near 25N and 65W that could cause the most advsrse conditions

Doesn't that go against what everyone else is thinking? I thought an anti-cyclone was going to develop over the system.

[wxman57]

Correct.

Isn't an anti-cyclone expected to develop over the western Gulf in a day or two? That is what I keep hearing. Wouldn't that mean a prime area for this to develop further?[/quote]

That's what the models are forecasting. Problem is, there isn't that much upper-air data that goes into the model initialization over the water, so you can't really trust model forecast of upper-level winds in many cases. We'll have to wait and see what really happens with the wind shear situation.

[Extremeweatherguy]

latest GFDL forecast seems to have shifted westward (according to this graphic):

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

[Cape Verde]

so far the storm is surviving though, that's the key. Every hour which goes by in which it's still at least a depression increases the threat.

It looked like it was in danger of being decapitated about 6 hours ago. Many wrote it off.

I wish they had been right. My company will have to make a decision on Monday whether we're in the threat zone for this storm. It has determined not to have a repeat of Rita where people evacuated so late that it created America's worst traffic jam.

But it's just stupid. On Monday we won't know a whole lot more than we know today. It still won't be in the Gulf.

I guess at this point I expect my employer to order my evacuation on Monday. It can't literally force this, but it will shut down work.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I haven't been tracking but I can estimate the LLC from rotation of low clouds popping out at nightfall on IR2. I'd roughly agree with your position but I would put it a shade closer - the LLC is distinctly under the CDO. However, what's really impressing me is the rapid growth of the LLC, which now encompasses the entire E Caribbean. That suggests to me that it's moving more air than the decent but not fantastic central IR presention indicates.

I just don't see the LLC under the CDO. Looks like the LLC is 60-70 nm. WNW of the CDO ahead of the cirrus shield. All I've been doing is staring at that thing since 4:30 this morning. It's about impossible to see the LLC with IR imagery, though. I can't find it now, as all I can see are mid and high clouds. It does appear to be moving rather quickly, and on a track to the right of the NHC forecast. Not far from the GFDL forecast, actually.

Why would the NHC give us a wrong location though? Didn't they fly recon into this. IMO, I think their location is probably correct due to the recon findings.

[Ptarmigan]

In Houston, we're keeping an eye on Ernesto. It could be a hurricane by the time it hits the Gulf of Mexico.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

When are they gonna send a Noaa plane--not recon but the one that checks the atmosphere around the storm to get a better idea for models? Or do they only do that for stronger storms?