dwg71 wrote:could someone send me a spaghetti model link?
Without BAMM/BAMD/BAMS/LBAR/XTRAP:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto33.gif
With the non-dynamic BAM models & LBAR
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto34.gif
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dwg71 wrote:could someone send me a spaghetti model link?
Derek Ortt wrote:I dont think the center is at 69W. If so, this thing has increased its forward speed to about 25KT.
However, I do agree that this remains a highly sheared marginal TS and the shear is showing no signs of abating at the present time
Sine the ULL is clearly moving west on water vapor, what else is shearing it right now?Derek Ortt wrote:I dont think the center is at 69W. If so, this thing has increased its forward speed to about 25KT.
However, I do agree that this remains a highly sheared marginal TS and the shear is showing no signs of abating at the present time
wxman57 wrote:I'm not as optimistic about its appearance as many of you. I tracked the center with high-res visible on a very large screen with 1-deg lat/lon lines all day. The LLC was clearly west of the NHC's 5PM EDT forecast position, well ahead of the convection. Here's a recent satellite with my estimate of the LLC/MLC positions. Can't really see the LLC any more on the IR image, I extrapolated from the previous visible image:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto32.jpg
Derek Ortt wrote:I dont think the center is at 69W. If so, this thing has increased its forward speed to about 25KT.
However, I do agree that this remains a highly sheared marginal TS and the shear is showing no signs of abating at the present time
Isn't an anti-cyclone expected to develop over the western Gulf in a day or two? That is what I keep hearing. Wouldn't that mean a prime area for this to develop further?Stormcenter wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:UL is not mvoing that much to the west
And everyone is watching the wrong UL. Its the UL near 25N and 65W that could cause the most advsrse conditions
Correct.
curtadams wrote:I haven't been tracking but I can estimate the LLC from rotation of low clouds popping out at nightfall on IR2. I'd roughly agree with your position but I would put it a shade closer - the LLC is distinctly under the CDO. However, what's really impressing me is the rapid growth of the LLC, which now encompasses the entire E Caribbean. That suggests to me that it's moving more air than the decent but not fantastic central IR presention indicates.
Isn't an anti-cyclone expected to develop over the western Gulf in a day or two? That is what I keep hearing. Wouldn't that mean a prime area for this to develop further?[/quote]Extremeweatherguy wrote:Correct.
ConvergenceZone wrote:so far the storm is surviving though, that's the key. Every hour which goes by in which it's still at least a depression increases the threat.
Why would the NHC give us a wrong location though? Didn't they fly recon into this. IMO, I think their location is probably correct due to the recon findings.wxman57 wrote:curtadams wrote:I haven't been tracking but I can estimate the LLC from rotation of low clouds popping out at nightfall on IR2. I'd roughly agree with your position but I would put it a shade closer - the LLC is distinctly under the CDO. However, what's really impressing me is the rapid growth of the LLC, which now encompasses the entire E Caribbean. That suggests to me that it's moving more air than the decent but not fantastic central IR presention indicates.
I just don't see the LLC under the CDO. Looks like the LLC is 60-70 nm. WNW of the CDO ahead of the cirrus shield. All I've been doing is staring at that thing since 4:30 this morning. It's about impossible to see the LLC with IR imagery, though. I can't find it now, as all I can see are mid and high clouds. It does appear to be moving rather quickly, and on a track to the right of the NHC forecast. Not far from the GFDL forecast, actually.
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