TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

jhamps10 · #1 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:42 am

mtm4319 · #2 Postby **mtm4319** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:45 am

I'm posting in here because jhamps called topic posting rights about 15 minutes ago.

Thunder44 wrote:
WxGuy1 wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:Wow....center now under the convection BIG TIME....

MTM4319 posted this nice graphic in the recon thread, which would indicate that the LLC is not under the most intense convection attm:
http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/6176 ... on4gp7.jpg

That image is a few hours old. From 3:45 UTC. The eclispe must be here.

Thanks for noticing that - I have it set to refresh every 30 minutes on Google Earth, but I guess it doesn't matter during the eclipse.

#3 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:47 am

Thunder44 wrote:
WxGuy1 wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:Wow....center now under the convection BIG TIME....

MTM4319 posted this nice graphic in the recon thread, which would indicate that the LLC is not under the most intense convection attm:
http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/6176 ... on4gp7.jpg

That image is a few hours old. From 3:45 UTC. The eclispe must be here.

Yep...that was before the eclipse...this is afterwards:

BOOM!!!

You guys MUST stop looking at the SSD page all the time!

jhamps10 · #4 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:48 am

Good evidence AFM, I completely forgot the eclipse was around now.

#5 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:49 am

jhamps10 wrote:Good evidence AFM, I completely forgot the eclipse was around now.

That's why you taxpayers pay me the big bucks. :wink:

Anyway...the vortex location is located right under the convection...

Beam · #6 Postby **Beam** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:50 am

Wow, that's a very impressive leap in organization in just two and a half hours.

HouTXmetro · #7 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:51 am

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

looks like more models are chiming in on the recurve. Not looking good for MGC/AL/FL Pan

#8 Postby **Bailey1777** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:51 am

AFM Don't care what other things say wanna get it from you, does the front make it to yhe coast in your opinion?

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #9 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:52 am

Wow. This is going to be EXTREMELY interesting to watch.

#10 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:54 am

Bailey1777 wrote:AFM Don't care what other things say wanna get it from you, does the front make it to yhe coast in your opinion?

Models always overplay the first fronts...ALWAYS. They overdig early trofs..especially this far out. This is a ridge that has not been known to split and it is still summer. Given the propensity for models to overdo trofs in August and early Septmber, I am not sold on a ridge split.

#11 Postby **Bailey1777** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:57 am

Thats kind of what I thought, fact is this one is going to be very hard to forecast. Do they drop you and make you do 20 if you get it wrong?

HouTXmetro · #12 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:59 am

Air Force Met wrote:
Bailey1777 wrote:AFM Don't care what other things say wanna get it from you, does the front make it to yhe coast in your opinion?

Models always overplay the first fronts...ALWAYS. They overdig early trofs..especially this far out. This is a ridge that has not been known to split and it is still summer. Given the propensity for models to overdo trofs in August and early Septmber, I am not sold on a ridge split.

interesting, with that said are you still "expecting" landfall West of NOLA? I know you can't pinpoint but if you had to go with a general region?

jhamps10 · #13 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:59 am

well we should find out what truely is going on wind speed wise, recon is about to enter into the deep convection right now.

HouTXmetro · #14 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 2:00 am

Ohhh he looks like he is doing some serious strengthening.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Derek Ortt · #15 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 2:02 am

plus, Ernesto is moving at about 280

on this heading, it passes south of Jamaica, putting it left of the model forecast points

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #16 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 2:03 am

I have to go to bed soon..

Any ideas on what Ernesto (I don't like that name) will be in the morning? Like 11 AM?

Yankeegirl · #17 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 2:04 am

A cold front or whatever this early in the season or any type of ridge over texas... i dunno... not sold on it either...

jhamps10 · #18 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 2:04 am

well I'd have to say 2 things, 1. it could be a very solid tropical storm or even minimal hurricane (not likely on hurricane) or 2. shear could develop and totally destroy this thing, which I have little or no confidence in.

#19 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 2:05 am

HouTXmetro wrote:
interesting, with that said are you still "expecting" landfall West of NOLA? I know you can't pinpoint but if you had to go with a general region?

Somewhere west of there...yes. I think the ridge holds and ernie rounds it into tx/la. Subject to change...still too early.

#20 Postby **Bailey1777** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 2:05 am

Derek same question please do you see the front making it to the coast?

TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

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