T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[JTD]

Thread 1 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88466

Thread 2 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88600

Thread 3 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 27&start=0

Thread 4 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 49&start=0

Thread 5 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88695

Thread 6 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 19&start=0

Thread 7 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 44&start=0

Thread 8 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... sc&start=0

Thread 9: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88785

Please continue the discussion here.

[Mac]

Uhhh...go back a few posts. You're saying exactly what I said. I stated that the "whispy" appearance on the NW side of the storm was not shear but outflow. So are you just busting my chops for the fun of it, or what? LOL

What part of this are you having trouble with? Did you run the loop will be my first question...

My second is understand that one level...at say 40K feet you can have outflow...but at a lower level...say 25K or 30K you can have shear. That is what we call undercutting shear.

I don't think I am the one that is having difficulty understanding here, AFM. Read my post again. I did not say that Ernie was not encountering shear. I merely pointed out to the poster that the "whispy" appearance on the NW quad of the storm was not shear but outflow...as per several pro mets on the board. You are somehow assuming that statement implies that I was suggesting no shear was present. It seemed to me that the poster was curious about the whispy appearance and whether shear was causing it, as I was curious about this same phenomenon last night. So I explained what had been explained to me by the pro mets. Chill already.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From Dr. Jeff Master's morning blog:

The track forecast
As Ernesto crosses into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, a trough of low pressure will be swinging across the eastern U.S. and should pull the storm on a more northerly track. Most of the models are showing that this trough will be strong enough to bring the storm all the way to the coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, the trough may not be strong enough to do this, and Ernesto could get stuck in the Gulf for a week, potentially heading westwards towards Texas as a new ridge of high pressure builds in. A subsequent trough could then turn the storm northwards into the coast at some later time. The UKMET model and GFS model prefer this solution. At this point, there is not enough information to say which solution is most likely, and residents from Texas to the Florida Keys need to be prepared for this storm to affect them.

He isn't really buying into this strong trough either.

[ronjon]

I think what adds some creditability to the GFS, GFDL, & NOGAPs model solutions is the ECMWF (Euro). By Friday night, it takes the storm into the Big Bend area of FL.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... uv850_z500

[Air Force Met]

Uhhh...go back a few posts. You're saying exactly what I said. I stated that the "whispy" appearance on the NW side of the storm was not shear but outflow. So are you just busting my chops for the fun of it, or what? LOL

What part of this are you having trouble with? Did you run the loop will be my first question...

My second is understand that one level...at say 40K feet you can have outflow...but at a lower level...say 25K or 30K you can have shear. That is what we call undercutting shear.

I don't think I am the one that is having difficulty understanding here, AFM. Read my post again. I did not say that Ernie was not encountering shear. I merely pointed out to the poster that the "whispy" appearance on the NW quad of the storm was not shear but outflow...as per several pro mets on the board. You are somehow assuming that statement implies that I was suggesting no shear was present. It seemed to me that the poster was curious about the whispy appearance and whether shear was causing it, as I was curious about this same phenomenon last night. So I explained what had been explained to me by the pro mets. Chill already.

Yes boss.

[dwg71]

But does say Texas to FL Keys... though. EWG your "selected" interpretation is very prevelant. Too Far out to make any land fall predictions.

[rnbaida]

I see this system staying as a TS as it nears cuba then once it passes cuba it will explode into a cat 3-4 hurricane.

[jwayne]

afm, what is your read on where this thing is headed late next week? saw you are not really buying into the model depiction of strength of trough. Thanks.

[Wx_Warrior]

Extreme...explain Tx/La offshore....

I did see on Accuwx that it hits as cat 2 on border...

[Extremeweatherguy]

But does say Texas to FL Keys... though. EWG your "selected" interpretation is very prevelant. Too Far out to make any land fall predictions.

I didn't have a "selected" interpretation. I was just posting what a Phd holding pro met was saying about the situation and why we shouldn't be so quick to jump on the strong trough bandwagon. Really this could still be anyone's game.

[Air Force Met]

afm, what is your read on where this thing is headed late next week? saw you are not really buying into the model depiction of strength of trough. Thanks.

Mid-TX coast to NOLA....heavy emphasis on LA coast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extreme...explain Tx/La offshore....

I did see on Accuwx that it hits as cat 2 on border...

I don't know what accuweather is saying as a whole, but according to JB he expects this to be at 92.5W, and 27.5N as a major hurricane next Friday. If you plot this on a map, that would be just offshore TX/LA and if it is heading WNW or NW like he said, it could be a bad situation.

[dwg71]

Ernie is looking pretty ragged towards end of loop..

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[rnbaida]

Ernie is looking pretty ragged towards end of loop..

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

I think the shear may be getting him...

[Wx_Warrior]

Yea...just read it as a Cat 2...nothing to play around with...

[Scorpion]

Ernie is looking pretty ragged towards end of loop..

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

Almost every single source I read says the shear is decreasing and its looking better.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Ernie is looking pretty ragged towards end of loop..

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

Ragged? He looks fine to me. He could be going throught the diurnal minimum now.

[dwg71]

I'm just looking with my own eyes, look at link, make own interpretation...

I might be wrong it might look better than it did 4 hours ago

[cinlfla]

But does say Texas to FL Keys... though. EWG your "selected" interpretation is very prevelant. Too Far out to make any land fall predictions.

I didn't have a "selected" interpretation. I was just posting what a Phd holding pro met was saying about the situation and why we shouldn't be so quick to jump on the strong trough bandwagon. Really this could still be anyone's game.

No they've convinced me that the west coast of Florida pretty much has nothing to worry about, especially with there rock solid predictions. Its going to Tx Or LA. I really do not want it to hit anyone but I really do feel bad for the folks in LA and MS if they get nailed by this storm

[PTrackerLA]

afm, what is your read on where this thing is headed late next week? saw you are not really buying into the model depiction of strength of trough. Thanks.

Mid-TX coast to NOLA....heavy emphasis on LA coast.

. If you're still saying that on Monday talk about absolute panic around here during the Katrina anniversary week.