T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[Brent]

will we get a 2pm on this today??

Yes, since there are advisories in place.

Now my question is is does anybody else think this will be upped in intensity for 2pm? I'm not experienced with this at all, but I'd be surprised if it wasn't.

I don't think so... not without recon data to back it up.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the Upper Level Forecast from the GFS...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

In the short term is has been right on with cutting the ULL low off and then the movement to the west. As for the other features such as a through digging down in... Some people seem scepticle of the intensity and position of the trough and any associated front that may or may not get strong if the trough may or may not amplifying as it moves into the southeast.

In the short term you can probably expect it to keep moving under the ridge @ a WNW motion. I don't see this Northerly component like some are saying.

Brent I did notice the convection is starting to fire more around the center.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html
Visible Floater

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html
water vapor loop showing the ULL moving west.

The question right for the short term is:

Will Ernesto move faster than the ULL? If it does then it will be shear but, if the ULL picks up the pace as the GFS has been very progresively showing in the past couple of days we'll see some strengthening overnight and tomorrow.

[Portastorm]

wow..I can only imagine all the "it's going to FL" talk that is going to pop up in the next few hours. Of course, this will just change again when the next run of the GFS shows something different (yet again).

When the GFS checks out of de-tox, someone should make a note of it. It's creating an eastern bias in some of the other models.

I agree. It is adding too much eastern bias to the models that run off of it.

How do you explain the Euro tracking the storm into the Big Bend - or the NOGAPs. Hey guys - if the globals were trending west I'd be harping about that. Just where is the so called "bias"? What basis in proof do you have for that statement?

As posted earlier here from a pro met, how can you trust ANY model at this point given them none of them are initializing the system all that well? Heck, we're even seeing disagreement from some of the pros here about where the LLC is, to be exact.

Trends are important yes ... and once again I'll echo what so many others have said today in that anybody along the Gulf Coast should be watching this thing very closely but I'd be highly skeptical of anyone buying off on a model run today as being gospel truth.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow..I can only imagine all the "it's going to FL" talk that is going to pop up in the next few hours. Of course, this will just change again when the next run of the GFS shows something different (yet again).

When the GFS checks out of de-tox, someone should make a note of it. It's creating an eastern bias in some of the other models.

I agree. It is adding too much eastern bias to the models that run off of it.

How do you explain the Euro tracking the storm into the Big Bend - or the NOGAPs. Hey guys - if the globals were trending west I'd be harping about that. Just where is the so called "bias"? What basis in proof do you have for that statement?

many models base their runs off the GFS run. So if the GFS shows conditions that favor an eastern track...those models will too. One example of this is the NHC model the GFDL.

[bayoubebe]

Yup...what it was? Two days ago that the majority of the models were pointing toward Texas? Now they're shifting east. People need to keep in mind this happens all the time.

Ditto to the nth degree!

Who wants to make a bet that the models will change again within a day or less?

[JonathanBelles]

Now my question is is does anybody else think this will be upped in intensity for 2pm? I'm not experienced with this at all, but I'd be surprised if it wasn't.

2 & 8 advisories usually dont have intensity changes just location and warning changes unless there is a major change

[Evil Jeremy]

what exactly is the ridge over FL? is it the high pressure moving in, or all the moisture that is being pushed away?

[SouthFloridawx]

282
WHXX04 KWBC 261733
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO 05L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.6 70.7 285./12.0
6 15.4 71.6 316./11.9
12 16.2 72.5 308./11.8
18 17.2 73.3 324./13.1
24 18.2 74.2 317./12.9
30 19.2 75.2 317./13.6
36 20.2 76.1 318./13.0
42 21.0 77.2 304./12.9
48 21.6 78.2 303./11.3
54 22.4 79.4 303./13.3
60 22.9 80.5 292./11.8
66 22.9 81.8 273./11.9
72 23.1 82.8 280./ 9.2
78 23.7 83.8 300./11.2
84 23.8 84.3 280./ 4.4
90 24.2 85.1 299./ 8.6
96 24.7 85.4 322./ 5.4
102 25.5 85.6 350./ 8.4
108 26.2 85.8 343./ 6.8
114 26.9 85.9 352./ 7.3
120 27.7 85.7 17./ 8.4
126 28.3 85.3 31./ 6.6

[Air Force Met]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

whats up with the moving north appearence?

You shouldn't be using WV to determine movement...especially when you have high rez vis images available.

You can't determine movement on WV unless there is an eye. Convection fires in all directions and it gives the appearence of movement.

[ALhurricane]

I find the 12z GFS highly laughable and feel it should be discounted. All one has to do is take a look at how the model handles the 850mb vort max. It handles it fine for the first 42hrs or so, then inexplicably turns it north across eastern Cuba right into the ridge.

I won't argue against a possible more east track, but find this ridiculous. People should look at this run with extreme caution.

[bob rulz]

will we get a 2pm on this today??

Yes, since there are advisories in place.

Now my question is is does anybody else think this will be upped in intensity for 2pm? I'm not experienced with this at all, but I'd be surprised if it wasn't.

I don't think so... not without recon data to back it up.

I thought recon was suppose to check it out at 2pm.

[Acral]

i don't know. It is holding together, but the shear is affecting it, so I seriously doubt it would be upgraded to a hurricane today.

[JonathanBelles]

itll just be arriving at 2pm

[Dean4Storms]

You can see from this satellite perspective adding the tropical forecast points that Ernesto is moving north of those forecast points. What this means is that there is going to be an adjustment to the forecasted track more north and eastward in the long run. It could also pass closer to Cuba than what is currently forecasted.

Go to this link and click on the tropical forecasted pts. in the upper right......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Brent]

will we get a 2pm on this today??

Yes, since there are advisories in place.

Now my question is is does anybody else think this will be upped in intensity for 2pm? I'm not experienced with this at all, but I'd be surprised if it wasn't.

I don't think so... not without recon data to back it up.

I thought recon was suppose to check it out at 2pm.

Yeah... I'm not sure now though. No info from the plane.

Regardless, all they will probably have is a new pressure fix. They don't actually flying around looking for the strongest winds til after that.

[SouthFloridawx]

Is that more of a consensus or what?

[Brent]

Is that more of a consensus or what?

Yeah... a bit.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

It's east to..

[wxman57]

Ok, eating lunch at my desk now. Made a new McICAS image. I think I may see an LLC where I put the "X".. Doesn't look like much more than a small eddy moving to the west ahead of the convection, though. That could be the lowest pressure area.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto38.gif

[bob rulz]

will we get a 2pm on this today??

Yes, since there are advisories in place.

Now my question is is does anybody else think this will be upped in intensity for 2pm? I'm not experienced with this at all, but I'd be surprised if it wasn't.

I don't think so... not without recon data to back it up.

I thought recon was suppose to check it out at 2pm.

Yeah... I'm not sure now though. No info from the plane.

Regardless, all they will probably have is a new pressure fix. They don't actually flying around looking for the strongest winds til after that.

Ah, I see. They should send recon out an hour earlier then...why is it always at the same time everyday? Just to make things easier?