Looking at the Upper Level Forecast from the GFS...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
In the short term is has been right on with cutting the ULL low off and then the movement to the west. As for the other features such as a through digging down in... Some people seem scepticle of the intensity and position of the trough and any associated front that may or may not get strong if the trough may or may not amplifying as it moves into the southeast.
In the short term you can probably expect it to keep moving under the ridge @ a WNW motion. I don't see this Northerly component like some are saying.
Brent I did notice the convection is starting to fire more around the center.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html
Visible Floater
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html
water vapor loop showing the ULL moving west.
The question right for the short term is:
Will Ernesto move faster than the ULL? If it does then it will be shear but, if the ULL picks up the pace as the GFS has been very progresively showing in the past couple of days we'll see some strengthening overnight and tomorrow.