12Z GFS - Shift East to West FL Coast

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4832
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: 12Z GFS - Shift East to West FL Coast

#21 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:24 pm

AJC3 wrote:
ronjon wrote:Holy Smokes! New GFS run shows the storm turning north along the west coast of FL. This trend in the models to the east is disturbing. :eek:


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


I think this needs to be qualified as to just how it gets there. It actually takes the H85 vortex NNW across eastern Cuba before turning it back WNW through the FL straits and keys, and then north and NNE on a Charley-like track.

A very dubious solution. I can't see how it comes close to verifying the track across eastern Cuba.


I agree AJC3 that the exact track seems pretty far-fetched. My point, and I have hammered on this for 5 or 6 posts now, is that the trends in nearly all of the global models are eastward. Now whether that changes the track to central GOM, east-central Gulf, or along the west coast of FL, I think it is still too early to play out. What is a disturbing trend to me is the 500 mb pattern of the breaking down of the eastern part of the upper ridge over FL by Friday. Also, being a PRO MET, I think you'll agree that when the ECMWF and GFS come to some agreement, there is a certain level of confidence gained in the overall trend or solution. Just my two cents worth from an amateur.
0 likes   

kenl01
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 397
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:35 am

#22 Postby kenl01 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:27 pm

This could be good news. Some runs of the LR GFS take this system into the Gulf, nearly stalls it for awhile, then takes it into North FL and eventually off the SE coast as a much weaker cyclone. That would bring some beneficial rains to the SE and little damage........I hope.
0 likes   

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 4008
Age: 61
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: Ballston Spa, New York
Contact:

Re: 12Z GFS - Shift East to West FL Coast

#23 Postby AJC3 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:29 pm

ronjon wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
ronjon wrote:Holy Smokes! New GFS run shows the storm turning north along the west coast of FL. This trend in the models to the east is disturbing. :eek:


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


I think this needs to be qualified as to just how it gets there. It actually takes the H85 vortex NNW across eastern Cuba before turning it back WNW through the FL straits and keys, and then north and NNE on a Charley-like track.

A very dubious solution. I can't see how it comes close to verifying the track across eastern Cuba.


I agree AJC3 that the exact track seems pretty far-fetched. My point, and I have hammered on this for 5 or 6 posts now, is that the trends in nearly all of the global models are eastward. Now whether that changes the track to central GOM, east-central Gulf, or along the west coast of FL, I think it is still too early to play out. What is a disturbing trend to me is the 500 mb pattern of the breaking down of the eastern part of the upper ridge over FL by Friday. Also, being a PRO MET, I think you'll agree that when the ECMWF and GFS come to some agreement, there is a certain level of confidence gained in the overall trend or solution. Just my two cents worth from an amateur.



I think the most disturbing trend is in the ECM, which is consistently the best perfomer of any of the global models in its depictions of the 500MB pattern (although it's not the best in the deep tropics by any means) However, when we're talking about a system that will be approaching 15-20N, and both the GFS/ECM trending toward more erosion of the SE ridge, it surely makes one take notice.
0 likes   

User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

#24 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:35 pm

The GFS model has not been very reliable this season.I don't tend to put alot of stock in it.Lets see what the other models look like by Monday
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#25 Postby Air Force Met » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:45 pm

bucman1 wrote:what would make the GFS come up with that solution??


We don't call it the GOOFUS for nothing.

I won't say what other call it...like Derek...since I don't talk that way. :lol:
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#26 Postby Air Force Met » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:48 pm

OK...this is what JB said...and I agree with him FULLY (man...scarey... :wink: )

"I tried to digest the GFS MIDDAY run on Ernesto, but got sick and threw up all over the place, since we seem to use its initialization for the hurricane models and so it will be a miracle of the GFDL this afternoon is not corrupt. I don't know if folks have noticed this, BUT UNTIL THE STORM HAS DEVELOPED FULLY, OUR MODELS ARE TERRIBLE.

That is it in a nutshell and I could not have said it better. That is a fact. The GFS is clearly not handling Earnie well....and that HAS corrupted the GFDL.
0 likes   

kenl01
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 397
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:35 am

#27 Postby kenl01 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:50 pm

Wow - this is gonna get tricky folks :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#28 Postby x-y-no » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:04 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
bucman1 wrote:what would make the GFS come up with that solution??


We don't call it the GOOFUS for nothing.

I won't say what other call it...like Derek...since I don't talk that way. :lol:


I have to say that from my perspective (in terms of actually being useful in predicting TC tracks,) the GFS is worse this year than it was the past two. Not that it was neccesarily any better at tracks before, but I had a better grasp of the biases it exhibited. I don't really know what it's doing now, so it's a lot harder to compensate.


Now if Ernesto really is trapped by the mid-level ridge and slows way down, tracking close south of or just over Cuba, then I'm just going to have to eat my words.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#29 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:07 pm

Air Force Met wrote:OK...this is what JB said...and I agree with him FULLY (man...scarey... :wink: )

"I tried to digest the GFS MIDDAY run on Ernesto, but got sick and threw up all over the place, since we seem to use its initialization for the hurricane models and so it will be a miracle of the GFDL this afternoon is not corrupt. I don't know if folks have noticed this, BUT UNTIL THE STORM HAS DEVELOPED FULLY, OUR MODELS ARE TERRIBLE.

That is it in a nutshell and I could not have said it better. That is a fact. The GFS is clearly not handling Earnie well....and that HAS corrupted the GFDL.
:lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
BonesXL
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 148
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 10:17 am
Location: Homestead, Florida
Contact:

#30 Postby BonesXL » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:08 pm

Well, Ernie has to get his act together for the models to really get a handle on its movement....until then its wait and see.
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#31 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:16 pm

Air Force Met wrote:OK...this is what JB said...and I agree with him FULLY (man...scarey... :wink: )

"I tried to digest the GFS MIDDAY run on Ernesto, but got sick and threw up all over the place, since we seem to use its initialization for the hurricane models and so it will be a miracle of the GFDL this afternoon is not corrupt. I don't know if folks have noticed this, BUT UNTIL THE STORM HAS DEVELOPED FULLY, OUR MODELS ARE TERRIBLE.

That is it in a nutshell and I could not have said it better. That is a fact. The GFS is clearly not handling Earnie well....and that HAS corrupted the GFDL.
I join you two as I did in fact get sick this morning...stupid GFS *kicks it*
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7191
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

#32 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:22 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:OK...this is what JB said...and I agree with him FULLY (man...scarey... :wink: )

"I tried to digest the GFS MIDDAY run on Ernesto, but got sick and threw up all over the place, since we seem to use its initialization for the hurricane models and so it will be a miracle of the GFDL this afternoon is not corrupt. I don't know if folks have noticed this, BUT UNTIL THE STORM HAS DEVELOPED FULLY, OUR MODELS ARE TERRIBLE.

That is it in a nutshell and I could not have said it better. That is a fact. The GFS is clearly not handling Earnie well....and that HAS corrupted the GFDL.
:lol:


what happened to the self imposed break from s2k you were going to take?
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#33 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:24 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:OK...this is what JB said...and I agree with him FULLY (man...scarey... :wink: )

"I tried to digest the GFS MIDDAY run on Ernesto, but got sick and threw up all over the place, since we seem to use its initialization for the hurricane models and so it will be a miracle of the GFDL this afternoon is not corrupt. I don't know if folks have noticed this, BUT UNTIL THE STORM HAS DEVELOPED FULLY, OUR MODELS ARE TERRIBLE.

That is it in a nutshell and I could not have said it better. That is a fact. The GFS is clearly not handling Earnie well....and that HAS corrupted the GFDL.
:lol:


what happened to the self imposed break from s2k you were going to take?


I bet the GFDL paid off the GFS for financial gains. :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

#34 Postby Portastorm » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:24 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:OK...this is what JB said...and I agree with him FULLY (man...scarey... :wink: )

"I tried to digest the GFS MIDDAY run on Ernesto, but got sick and threw up all over the place, since we seem to use its initialization for the hurricane models and so it will be a miracle of the GFDL this afternoon is not corrupt. I don't know if folks have noticed this, BUT UNTIL THE STORM HAS DEVELOPED FULLY, OUR MODELS ARE TERRIBLE.

That is it in a nutshell and I could not have said it better. That is a fact. The GFS is clearly not handling Earnie well....and that HAS corrupted the GFDL.
:lol:


what happened to the self imposed break from s2k you were going to take?


You missed it, EWG was gone for 10 minutes! :lol:
0 likes   

BowMeHunter1974
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 8
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:06 pm

#35 Postby BowMeHunter1974 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:29 pm

Hog wash run......
0 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3249
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#36 Postby chris_fit » Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:34 pm

So what are the reasons for the huge GFS jump to the east?
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#37 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 26, 2006 2:20 pm

with the center now appearing as if it is more NE than the NHC has it under the CDO the track could shift right again.....increasing the chances of a West Coast of FL brush/hit or panhandle hit.

You would think the ridge to the north would start steering this thing more west. I know here in South Florida winds have shifted back to the east indicating the ridge is building back in.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 7cardinal, 869MB, Cpv17, kevin and 31 guests