12Z GFS - Shift East to West FL Coast

[ronjon]

Holy Smokes! New GFS run shows the storm turning north along the west coast of FL. This trend in the models to the east is disturbing.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

I think this needs to be qualified as to just how it gets there. It actually takes the H85 vortex NNW across eastern Cuba before turning it back WNW through the FL straits and keys, and then north and NNE on a Charley-like track.

A very dubious solution. I can't see how it comes close to verifying the track across eastern Cuba.

I agree AJC3 that the exact track seems pretty far-fetched. My point, and I have hammered on this for 5 or 6 posts now, is that the trends in nearly all of the global models are eastward. Now whether that changes the track to central GOM, east-central Gulf, or along the west coast of FL, I think it is still too early to play out. What is a disturbing trend to me is the 500 mb pattern of the breaking down of the eastern part of the upper ridge over FL by Friday. Also, being a PRO MET, I think you'll agree that when the ECMWF and GFS come to some agreement, there is a certain level of confidence gained in the overall trend or solution. Just my two cents worth from an amateur.

[kenl01]

This could be good news. Some runs of the LR GFS take this system into the Gulf, nearly stalls it for awhile, then takes it into North FL and eventually off the SE coast as a much weaker cyclone. That would bring some beneficial rains to the SE and little damage........I hope.

[AJC3]

Holy Smokes! New GFS run shows the storm turning north along the west coast of FL. This trend in the models to the east is disturbing.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

I think this needs to be qualified as to just how it gets there. It actually takes the H85 vortex NNW across eastern Cuba before turning it back WNW through the FL straits and keys, and then north and NNE on a Charley-like track.

A very dubious solution. I can't see how it comes close to verifying the track across eastern Cuba.

I agree AJC3 that the exact track seems pretty far-fetched. My point, and I have hammered on this for 5 or 6 posts now, is that the trends in nearly all of the global models are eastward. Now whether that changes the track to central GOM, east-central Gulf, or along the west coast of FL, I think it is still too early to play out. What is a disturbing trend to me is the 500 mb pattern of the breaking down of the eastern part of the upper ridge over FL by Friday. Also, being a PRO MET, I think you'll agree that when the ECMWF and GFS come to some agreement, there is a certain level of confidence gained in the overall trend or solution. Just my two cents worth from an amateur.

I think the most disturbing trend is in the ECM, which is consistently the best perfomer of any of the global models in its depictions of the 500MB pattern (although it's not the best in the deep tropics by any means) However, when we're talking about a system that will be approaching 15-20N, and both the GFS/ECM trending toward more erosion of the SE ridge, it surely makes one take notice.

[canegrl04]

The GFS model has not been very reliable this season.I don't tend to put alot of stock in it.Lets see what the other models look like by Monday

[Air Force Met]

what would make the GFS come up with that solution??

We don't call it the GOOFUS for nothing.

I won't say what other call it...like Derek...since I don't talk that way.

[Air Force Met]

OK...this is what JB said...and I agree with him FULLY (man...scarey... )

"I tried to digest the GFS MIDDAY run on Ernesto, but got sick and threw up all over the place, since we seem to use its initialization for the hurricane models and so it will be a miracle of the GFDL this afternoon is not corrupt. I don't know if folks have noticed this, BUT UNTIL THE STORM HAS DEVELOPED FULLY, OUR MODELS ARE TERRIBLE.

That is it in a nutshell and I could not have said it better. That is a fact. The GFS is clearly not handling Earnie well....and that HAS corrupted the GFDL.

[kenl01]

Wow - this is gonna get tricky folks

[x-y-no]

what would make the GFS come up with that solution??

We don't call it the GOOFUS for nothing.

I won't say what other call it...like Derek...since I don't talk that way.

I have to say that from my perspective (in terms of actually being useful in predicting TC tracks,) the GFS is worse this year than it was the past two. Not that it was neccesarily any better at tracks before, but I had a better grasp of the biases it exhibited. I don't really know what it's doing now, so it's a lot harder to compensate.


Now if Ernesto really is trapped by the mid-level ridge and slows way down, tracking close south of or just over Cuba, then I'm just going to have to eat my words.

[Extremeweatherguy]

OK...this is what JB said...and I agree with him FULLY (man...scarey... )

"I tried to digest the GFS MIDDAY run on Ernesto, but got sick and threw up all over the place, since we seem to use its initialization for the hurricane models and so it will be a miracle of the GFDL this afternoon is not corrupt. I don't know if folks have noticed this, BUT UNTIL THE STORM HAS DEVELOPED FULLY, OUR MODELS ARE TERRIBLE.

That is it in a nutshell and I could not have said it better. That is a fact. The GFS is clearly not handling Earnie well....and that HAS corrupted the GFDL.

[BonesXL]

Well, Ernie has to get his act together for the models to really get a handle on its movement....until then its wait and see.

[brunota2003]

OK...this is what JB said...and I agree with him FULLY (man...scarey... )

"I tried to digest the GFS MIDDAY run on Ernesto, but got sick and threw up all over the place, since we seem to use its initialization for the hurricane models and so it will be a miracle of the GFDL this afternoon is not corrupt. I don't know if folks have noticed this, BUT UNTIL THE STORM HAS DEVELOPED FULLY, OUR MODELS ARE TERRIBLE.

That is it in a nutshell and I could not have said it better. That is a fact. The GFS is clearly not handling Earnie well....and that HAS corrupted the GFDL.

I join you two as I did in fact get sick this morning...stupid GFS *kicks it*

[jlauderdal]

OK...this is what JB said...and I agree with him FULLY (man...scarey... )

"I tried to digest the GFS MIDDAY run on Ernesto, but got sick and threw up all over the place, since we seem to use its initialization for the hurricane models and so it will be a miracle of the GFDL this afternoon is not corrupt. I don't know if folks have noticed this, BUT UNTIL THE STORM HAS DEVELOPED FULLY, OUR MODELS ARE TERRIBLE.

That is it in a nutshell and I could not have said it better. That is a fact. The GFS is clearly not handling Earnie well....and that HAS corrupted the GFDL.

what happened to the self imposed break from s2k you were going to take?

[SouthFloridawx]

OK...this is what JB said...and I agree with him FULLY (man...scarey... )

"I tried to digest the GFS MIDDAY run on Ernesto, but got sick and threw up all over the place, since we seem to use its initialization for the hurricane models and so it will be a miracle of the GFDL this afternoon is not corrupt. I don't know if folks have noticed this, BUT UNTIL THE STORM HAS DEVELOPED FULLY, OUR MODELS ARE TERRIBLE.

That is it in a nutshell and I could not have said it better. That is a fact. The GFS is clearly not handling Earnie well....and that HAS corrupted the GFDL.

what happened to the self imposed break from s2k you were going to take?

I bet the GFDL paid off the GFS for financial gains.

[Portastorm]

OK...this is what JB said...and I agree with him FULLY (man...scarey... )

"I tried to digest the GFS MIDDAY run on Ernesto, but got sick and threw up all over the place, since we seem to use its initialization for the hurricane models and so it will be a miracle of the GFDL this afternoon is not corrupt. I don't know if folks have noticed this, BUT UNTIL THE STORM HAS DEVELOPED FULLY, OUR MODELS ARE TERRIBLE.

That is it in a nutshell and I could not have said it better. That is a fact. The GFS is clearly not handling Earnie well....and that HAS corrupted the GFDL.

what happened to the self imposed break from s2k you were going to take?

You missed it, EWG was gone for 10 minutes!

[BowMeHunter1974]

Hog wash run......

[chris_fit]

So what are the reasons for the huge GFS jump to the east?

[gatorcane]

with the center now appearing as if it is more NE than the NHC has it under the CDO the track could shift right again.....increasing the chances of a West Coast of FL brush/hit or panhandle hit.

You would think the ridge to the north would start steering this thing more west. I know here in South Florida winds have shifted back to the east indicating the ridge is building back in.