TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)
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- Extremeweatherguy
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18Z GFS at 42 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- WindRunner
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:18Z GFS at 44 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml
Looks a touch empty to me . . . what happened? Drastic weakening and west of Jamaica? OK . . .
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- Extremeweatherguy
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lol! your right.x-y-no wrote:Let the GFS bashing begin anew!!
![]()
At 42 - 54 hours, all of a sudden, it makes a hard right turn across Cuba north of Jamaica.
Now ... everybody get your whacks in, then I'll explain why I ythink it does this.
Here is the 60 hr for everyone else to look at: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml
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- WindRunner
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x-y-no wrote:Let the GFS bashing begin anew!!
![]()
At 42 - 54 hours, all of a sudden, it makes a hard right turn across Cuba north of Jamaica.
Now ... everybody get your whacks in, then I'll explain why I ythink it does this.
Naww . . . I'd rather not wait around for a page of "it's crazy! blahblahblah . . ."
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- Extremeweatherguy
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well you don't think it's right do you?WindRunner wrote:x-y-no wrote:Let the GFS bashing begin anew!!
![]()
At 42 - 54 hours, all of a sudden, it makes a hard right turn across Cuba north of Jamaica.
Now ... everybody get your whacks in, then I'll explain why I ythink it does this.
Naww . . . I'd rather not wait around for a page of "it's crazy! blahblahblah . . ."
Therefore I think the GFS really IS crazy.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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18Z NAM is a tad further west than it was earlier. It takes it over Jamaica (as forecasted), but then brings it further west into the GOM:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif
Could the NAM be seeing a stronger ridge and less of a trough?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif
Could the NAM be seeing a stronger ridge and less of a trough?
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- AL Chili Pepper
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One thing's for sure, that ULL is bugging out fast and shouldn't be a player after 12 hours or so. Shear's down 20 knots from last night. Should be no inhibiting factors from this after that except of course land proximity. The 200mb loop shows it shooting off to the west and filling in over the YP.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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- x-y-no
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:lol! your right.x-y-no wrote:Let the GFS bashing begin anew!!
![]()
At 42 - 54 hours, all of a sudden, it makes a hard right turn across Cuba north of Jamaica.
Now ... everybody get your whacks in, then I'll explain why I ythink it does this.
Here is the 60 hr for everyone else to look at: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml
Well ... I gotta run, so I'll post one image and a quick explanation:

What it's doing is it's actually building the mid-level ridge in so strong in front of the system that it stops it dead. Then the default GFS beahavior kicks in and lets it go north to escape.
Now I don't find this a believable scenario (certainly not the sharp turn into the ridge) but the idea of the ridge temporarily building in front and slowing down the progress of the storm (and thus affecting long-term track) is more plausible.
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:18Z NAM is a tad further west than it was earlier. It takes it over Jamaica (as forecasted), but then brings it further west into the GOM:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif
Could the NAM be seeing a stronger ridge and less of a trough?
Odd how the NAM shows 2 separate lows.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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yeah I just went back and noticed that too. Strange..Scorpion wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:18Z NAM is a tad further west than it was earlier. It takes it over Jamaica (as forecasted), but then brings it further west into the GOM:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif
Could the NAM be seeing a stronger ridge and less of a trough?
Odd how the NAM shows 2 separate lows.
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Scorpion wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:18Z NAM is a tad further west than it was earlier. It takes it over Jamaica (as forecasted), but then brings it further west into the GOM:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif
Could the NAM be seeing a stronger ridge and less of a trough?
Odd how the NAM shows 2 separate lows.
Yeah I was just going to post that.

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