TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

[Sanibel]

Watch the surface center - not the convection.

[Dean4Storms]

I told you guys the center was further ENE up under the convection.

[Extremeweatherguy]

18Z GFS at 42 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml

[kjun]

Interesting about the 5pm Advisory. The NHC indicates that Ernie will be moving wnw, but the forecast plots are nearly NW. I think that the reformation of the center has made major adjustments. I am just curious to see if the models will shift more to west once again.

[WindRunner]

18Z GFS at 44 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml

Looks a touch empty to me . . . what happened? Drastic weakening and west of Jamaica? OK . . .

[28_Storms]

I am just curious to see if the models will shift more to west once again.

You mean east right?

[x-y-no]

Let the GFS bashing begin anew!!



At 42 - 54 hours, all of a sudden, it makes a hard right turn across Cuba north of Jamaica.


Now ... everybody get your whacks in, then I'll explain why I ythink it does this.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Now ... everybody get your whacks in, then I'll explain why I ythink it does this.

Hmm, not whacking...just waiting to hear. I was a bit too conservaive to go that way, but there might be something to it.

[cinlfla]

I think models will trend west again, this is just how it is every year they start west then they go east then back west they are doing their usual flip flopping around. Now that recon has gone in they will be able to feed better data into the models.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Let the GFS bashing begin anew!!



At 42 - 54 hours, all of a sudden, it makes a hard right turn across Cuba north of Jamaica.


Now ... everybody get your whacks in, then I'll explain why I ythink it does this.

lol! your right.

Here is the 60 hr for everyone else to look at: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml

[WindRunner]

Let the GFS bashing begin anew!!



At 42 - 54 hours, all of a sudden, it makes a hard right turn across Cuba north of Jamaica.


Now ... everybody get your whacks in, then I'll explain why I ythink it does this.

Naww . . . I'd rather not wait around for a page of "it's crazy! blahblahblah . . ."

[Extremeweatherguy]

Let the GFS bashing begin anew!!



At 42 - 54 hours, all of a sudden, it makes a hard right turn across Cuba north of Jamaica.


Now ... everybody get your whacks in, then I'll explain why I ythink it does this.

Naww . . . I'd rather not wait around for a page of "it's crazy! blahblahblah . . ."

well you don't think it's right do you?

Therefore I think the GFS really IS crazy.

[Wx_Warrior]

Cinfla...dissagreeing with you on the trek back west....Remember, they started Ernesto Madril going over Galveston on Friday evening...Not looking good for people on the NE GOM....

[Extremeweatherguy]

18Z NAM is a tad further west than it was earlier. It takes it over Jamaica (as forecasted), but then brings it further west into the GOM:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

Could the NAM be seeing a stronger ridge and less of a trough?

[duris]

If someone can develop software that will filter out certain posters (sometimes anyone other than pros) and/or terms (e.g., wobble, told you so, etc.), I will gladly pay for it.

[AL Chili Pepper]

One thing's for sure, that ULL is bugging out fast and shouldn't be a player after 12 hours or so. Shear's down 20 knots from last night. Should be no inhibiting factors from this after that except of course land proximity. The 200mb loop shows it shooting off to the west and filling in over the YP.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[x-y-no]

Let the GFS bashing begin anew!!



At 42 - 54 hours, all of a sudden, it makes a hard right turn across Cuba north of Jamaica.


Now ... everybody get your whacks in, then I'll explain why I ythink it does this.

lol! your right.

Here is the 60 hr for everyone else to look at: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml

Well ... I gotta run, so I'll post one image and a quick explanation:



What it's doing is it's actually building the mid-level ridge in so strong in front of the system that it stops it dead. Then the default GFS beahavior kicks in and lets it go north to escape.


Now I don't find this a believable scenario (certainly not the sharp turn into the ridge) but the idea of the ridge temporarily building in front and slowing down the progress of the storm (and thus affecting long-term track) is more plausible.

[Scorpion]

18Z NAM is a tad further west than it was earlier. It takes it over Jamaica (as forecasted), but then brings it further west into the GOM:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

Could the NAM be seeing a stronger ridge and less of a trough?

Odd how the NAM shows 2 separate lows.

[Extremeweatherguy]

18Z NAM is a tad further west than it was earlier. It takes it over Jamaica (as forecasted), but then brings it further west into the GOM:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

Could the NAM be seeing a stronger ridge and less of a trough?

Odd how the NAM shows 2 separate lows.

yeah I just went back and noticed that too. Strange..

[Stormcenter]

18Z NAM is a tad further west than it was earlier. It takes it over Jamaica (as forecasted), but then brings it further west into the GOM:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

Could the NAM be seeing a stronger ridge and less of a trough?

Odd how the NAM shows 2 separate lows.

Yeah I was just going to post that.