What is Joe B. saying about Ernesto?

[Hurricane Cheese]

I know he can be somewhat of a polarizing figure here on Storm2k, but I'm curious if anyone has heard what Joe Bastardi has been saying yet regarding Ernesto's track & intensity?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I spoke with him earlier and he said possibly CAT 4 Eastern Gulf looking more likely now.

[gatorcane]

Eastern GOM???? Really that adds some more support to the right shift theory.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Central LA coast eastward he said more likely NO to Pensacola.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I to a point agree that this will likely hit around 84-86 west....But I don't think this will become a cat4. Maybe 105 knot cat3 because the overalll enviroment is not that faverable...Even so this doe's looks like dennis a little. It will also be a weaker system when it hits Cuba to. So it should do a number to the core.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Thanks KFDM!

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

I to a point agree that this will likely hit around 84-86 west....But I don't think this will become a cat4. Maybe 105 knot cat3 because the overalll enviroment is not that faverable...Even so this doe's looks like dennis a little. It will also be a weaker system when it hits Cuba to. So it should do a number to the core.

I think so too. I'm thinking Cat 3 at landfall.. maybe strong Cat 2.

Then again, I wonder if this thing will strengthen right up until landfall. Kind of do differently than Dennis, Katrina, and Rita. And even Ivan.

[Downdraft]

I to a point agree that this will likely hit around 84-86 west....But I don't think this will become a cat4. Maybe 105 knot cat3 because the overalll enviroment is not that faverable...Even so this doe's looks like dennis a little. It will also be a weaker system when it hits Cuba to. So it should do a number to the core.

Not true the section of Cuba it will pass over is relatively flat. It will not disrupt Ernesto at all.

[Hurricane Cheese]

I to a point agree that this will likely hit around 84-86 west....But I don't think this will become a cat4. Maybe 105 knot cat3 because the overalll enviroment is not that faverable...Even so this doe's looks like dennis a little. It will also be a weaker system when it hits Cuba to. So it should do a number to the core.

Not true the section of Cuba it will pass over is relatively flat. It will not disrupt Ernesto at all.

Agreed. Remember Charley. And Dennis for that matter. Even though Dennis weakened to a Cat 1 over Cuba, he regained Category 4 status after reemerging into the GOM.

[Brent]

I to a point agree that this will likely hit around 84-86 west....But I don't think this will become a cat4. Maybe 105 knot cat3 because the overalll enviroment is not that faverable...Even so this doe's looks like dennis a little. It will also be a weaker system when it hits Cuba to. So it should do a number to the core.

Well it depends. Dennis went over a pretty significant portion of Cuba with mountains. IF IF IF this follows the NHC track(and that's a big if), it'll go across a very skinny part and probably won't weaken much at all(certainly not significantly). Remember Charley? He crossed right near Havana which is about where the NHC track is.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Central LA coast eastward he said more likely NO to Pensacola.

That's a pretty bold statement considering all the factors. I think I'm more concerned now of strenthening than location with the relatively low shear forecast for the GOM. IMHO, location is still a toss-up of anywhere along the NC and NE GOM.

[LaBreeze]

I had a feeling that it was more like an Ala/Flor type of storm.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It's funny how many people bash him and disagree with him when he said a TX storm, but now all the sudden when he says N.O. to Pensacola many accept it as being right.

However, he has not officially changed his call yet. According to his last post, he will wait until tomorrow before officially calling this a threat further east.

Basically he is saying that the slower it goes..the further east it goes, and the faster..the further west.

[kjun]

I thought JB was forecasting the western GOM earlier today. Did he change his thoughts during the day?

[KatDaddy]

Yes he did and again he is wong. I think Joe B is a model.......LOL...whatever.

[alan1961]

if this shear dont let up it wont end up in the gulf at all..it could go between Dominican and cuba

[Steve H.]

Here, here Alan...good show ole boy! I've been wanting to say that for the last 12 hours. That would stop the bickering

[timNms]

I to a point agree that this will likely hit around 84-86 west....But I don't think this will become a cat4. Maybe 105 knot cat3 because the overalll enviroment is not that faverable...Even so this doe's looks like dennis a little. It will also be a weaker system when it hits Cuba to. So it should do a number to the core.

If memory serves me correctly, Frederic in 1979 visited almost the entire length of Cuba....and it was still a monster when it hit near Mobile. I think it depends on how well established the circulation is when it crosses Cuba.

[stormspotter]

I to a point agree that this will likely hit around 84-86 west....But I don't think this will become a cat4. Maybe 105 knot cat3 because the overalll enviroment is not that faverable...Even so this doe's looks like dennis a little. It will also be a weaker system when it hits Cuba to. So it should do a number to the core.

If memory serves me correctly, Frederic in 1979 visited almost the entire length of Cuba....and it was still a monster when it hit near Mobile. I think it depends on how well established the circulation is when it crosses Cuba.

You are exactly correct, It crossed the length of Cuba along the Northern side as a depression, before reemerging into the Gulf off the west tip of Cuba.

[alan1961]

Here, here Alan...good show ole boy! I've been wanting to say that for the last 12 hours. That would stop the bickering

i think these guys are going to have to change these forecast tracks often, i really do think this storm will enter cuba further on its eastern side.