What is Joe B. saying about Ernesto?
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- Hurricane Cheese
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What is Joe B. saying about Ernesto?
I know he can be somewhat of a polarizing figure here on Storm2k, but I'm curious if anyone has heard what Joe Bastardi has been saying yet regarding Ernesto's track & intensity?
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- KFDM Meteorologist
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- KFDM Meteorologist
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I to a point agree that this will likely hit around 84-86 west....But I don't think this will become a cat4. Maybe 105 knot cat3 because the overalll enviroment is not that faverable...Even so this doe's looks like dennis a little. It will also be a weaker system when it hits Cuba to. So it should do a number to the core.
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- Hurricane Cheese
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- all_we_know_is_FALLING
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I to a point agree that this will likely hit around 84-86 west....But I don't think this will become a cat4. Maybe 105 knot cat3 because the overalll enviroment is not that faverable...Even so this doe's looks like dennis a little. It will also be a weaker system when it hits Cuba to. So it should do a number to the core.
I think so too. I'm thinking Cat 3 at landfall.. maybe strong Cat 2.
Then again, I wonder if this thing will strengthen right up until landfall. Kind of do differently than Dennis, Katrina, and Rita. And even Ivan.
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- Downdraft
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I to a point agree that this will likely hit around 84-86 west....But I don't think this will become a cat4. Maybe 105 knot cat3 because the overalll enviroment is not that faverable...Even so this doe's looks like dennis a little. It will also be a weaker system when it hits Cuba to. So it should do a number to the core.
Not true the section of Cuba it will pass over is relatively flat. It will not disrupt Ernesto at all.
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- Hurricane Cheese
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Downdraft wrote:Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I to a point agree that this will likely hit around 84-86 west....But I don't think this will become a cat4. Maybe 105 knot cat3 because the overalll enviroment is not that faverable...Even so this doe's looks like dennis a little. It will also be a weaker system when it hits Cuba to. So it should do a number to the core.
Not true the section of Cuba it will pass over is relatively flat. It will not disrupt Ernesto at all.
Agreed. Remember Charley. And Dennis for that matter. Even though Dennis weakened to a Cat 1 over Cuba, he regained Category 4 status after reemerging into the GOM.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I to a point agree that this will likely hit around 84-86 west....But I don't think this will become a cat4. Maybe 105 knot cat3 because the overalll enviroment is not that faverable...Even so this doe's looks like dennis a little. It will also be a weaker system when it hits Cuba to. So it should do a number to the core.
Well it depends. Dennis went over a pretty significant portion of Cuba with mountains. IF IF IF this follows the NHC track(and that's a big if), it'll go across a very skinny part and probably won't weaken much at all(certainly not significantly). Remember Charley? He crossed right near Havana which is about where the NHC track is.
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- AL Chili Pepper
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KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Central LA coast eastward he said more likely NO to Pensacola.
That's a pretty bold statement considering all the factors. I think I'm more concerned now of strenthening than location with the relatively low shear forecast for the GOM. IMHO, location is still a toss-up of anywhere along the NC and NE GOM.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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However, he has not officially changed his call yet. According to his last post, he will wait until tomorrow before officially calling this a threat further east.
Basically he is saying that the slower it goes..the further east it goes, and the faster..the further west.
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Yes he did and again he is wong. I think Joe B is a model.......LOL...whatever.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I to a point agree that this will likely hit around 84-86 west....But I don't think this will become a cat4. Maybe 105 knot cat3 because the overalll enviroment is not that faverable...Even so this doe's looks like dennis a little. It will also be a weaker system when it hits Cuba to. So it should do a number to the core.
If memory serves me correctly, Frederic in 1979 visited almost the entire length of Cuba....and it was still a monster when it hit near Mobile. I think it depends on how well established the circulation is when it crosses Cuba.
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- stormspotter
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timNms wrote:Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I to a point agree that this will likely hit around 84-86 west....But I don't think this will become a cat4. Maybe 105 knot cat3 because the overalll enviroment is not that faverable...Even so this doe's looks like dennis a little. It will also be a weaker system when it hits Cuba to. So it should do a number to the core.
If memory serves me correctly, Frederic in 1979 visited almost the entire length of Cuba....and it was still a monster when it hit near Mobile. I think it depends on how well established the circulation is when it crosses Cuba.
You are exactly correct, It crossed the length of Cuba along the Northern side as a depression, before reemerging into the Gulf off the west tip of Cuba.
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