TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

[mtm4319]

WOuld like to see the latest projected path map.Something updated from 5pm.It will probably swith to the west slightly

There will not be an updated map until the 11pm advisory.

[Weatherfreak000]

Isn't it possible the NHC just hasn't issued an 8PM 5 Day Track yet?


That could very well be the real deal right?

The NHC only updates the track at 5 and 11, not during intermediate advisories.

<RICKY>

That's not true, they had a 2 PM Track earlier today.

[Brent]

Isn't it possible the NHC just hasn't issued an 8PM 5 Day Track yet?


That could very well be the real deal right?

That's not true, they had a 2 PM Track earlier today.

No, that's the 11am track again.

and no, the 2pm track was the exact same as the 11am track. Only the initial position changed.

[pcwick]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 7gosst.png

Assuming Ernesto crosses the small pocket of very warm water along the southern coast of Cuba, is that a big enough area of very warm water to have an effect on the strength of the storm?

[huricanwatcher]

Ernie going more north than expected, I believe.. not going to be a GOM storm

LOL...that's got to be the most hilarious post I've seen yet. Thanks for making me laugh!

Good ... looks like ya'll need some humor

[HouTXmetro]

Isn't that GFDN track a drastic change from its previous run?

Seems a bit whacked. I dunno.

I think it does.

IF there is a trend it has to start somewhere, however this solution would be in line with what many mets on this board have been saying all day. Those who didn't buy the Eastward GFS trend.

[Weatherfreak000]

Isn't it possible the NHC just hasn't issued an 8PM 5 Day Track yet?


That could very well be the real deal right?

That's not true, they had a 2 PM Track earlier today.

No, that's the 11am track again.

and no, the 2pm track was the exact same as the 11am track. Only the initial position changed.

Oh yeah, I confused myself Brent. My bad lol.

[PTrackerLA]

Curious to see what the NHC will do with their 11pm track. I'd say a shift more towards MS on the 5 day given these new models.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Isn't that GFDN track a drastic change from its previous run?

Seems a bit whacked. I dunno.

I think it does.

IF there is a trend it has to start somewhere, however this solution would be in line with what many mets on this board have been saying all day. Those who didn't buy the Eastward GFS trend.

I think previously it had a track to SE Louisiana.

[Stormcenter]

Ernie going more north than expected, I believe.. not going to be a GOM storm

LOL...that's got to be the most hilarious post I've seen yet. Thanks for making me laugh!

Well it's not in the GOM yet so I guess anything is possible.
Look how far away it still is from the GOM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[TampaFl]

That 8pm track on Wunderground is not correct. That's the old track from today. I just checked the raw data and it's the same as the 5pm track. Plus, they don't change forecast tracks on Intermediate Advisories.

I think they are showing you the 8:00PM postion marked as TS in relation to the 5:00PM forecast track.


Robert

[drezee]

hard to believe a model is saying 150 kts...not much to say about it. I am not very familair with the models track record.

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html

[Scorpion]

Lol..CHIPS. I wonder what kind of merit this model has.

[Stormcenter]

hard to believe a model is saying 150 kts...not much to say about it. I am not very familair with the models track record.

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html

Yeah it looks like it's headed toward TX.

[El Nino]

hard to believe a model is saying 150 kts...not much to say about it. I am not very familair with the models track record.

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html

Indeed, that's a good one

[mj]

Not much if it's Eric Estrada now forecasting and not selling real estate on tv !

[huricanwatcher]

Looking at the models tonight from early this morning . Good ole Ernie is shitfting way east and north of what was forcast earlier..... So southern tip FL and up the East coast is still not out of the question (for all those that thought my earlier post was so humorous)

[Brent]

Looking at the models tonight from early this morning . Good ole Ernie is shitfting way east and north of what was forcast earlier..... So southern tip FL and up the East coast is still not out of the question (for all those that thought my earlier post was so humorous)

It still is.

What the heck is CHIPS Ens.? Never heard of it.

[Trugunzn]

Is the convection now wraping around the center. See that curve?


Also It think if it goes north of Jamaica it will hit cuba and go north. If it goes sout of Jamaica it wil probally hit tip of cuba or right between mexico and cuba.

[huricanwatcher]

Looking at the models tonight from early this morning . Good ole Ernie is shitfting way east and north of what was forcast earlier..... So southern tip FL and up the East coast is still not out of the question (for all those that thought my earlier post was so humorous)

It still is.

What the heck is CHIPS Ens.? Never heard of it.

ya dont want me to explain CHIPS lmao