TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[jhamps10]

Thread 1 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88466

Thread 2 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88600

Thread 3 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 27&start=0

Thread 4 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 49&start=0

Thread 5 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88695

Thread 6 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 19&start=0

Thread 7 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 44&start=0

Thread 8 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... sc&start=0

Thread 9: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88785

Thread 10: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88794

Thread 11: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 23&start=0

Here we are, at number 12. Please continue.

[Scorpion]

Ernesto is looking much better organized at this moment. Hurricane status for the 11 am advisory tomorrow looks possible.

[jhamps10]

yeah looking at the satellite, that the convection is starting to wrap around the center, I could get a suprise tomorrow morning, that it will be a 'cane.

[Regit]

Continuing from the other thread...

I don't understand what's so funny about someone pointing out that the storm could end up never going to the GOM. There is still a possibility it could hit Cuba and die there.

[Trugunzn]

I think the center is right between the 2 big blobs. Loooks like is trying to make a eye. See its warmer cloud tops between the two big blobs

[El Nino]

For the last 2 days, 10 kts more in 24h, so at least hurricane for tomorrow night, but it could be before (or after).

[Vortex]

I agree, Ernesto becoming much better organized at this hour. Motion contiues to the NW and looks like it may cross exteme sw Haiti overnight. Tremendous rains are approaching the DR and mudslides and loss of life may unfortunately be a big problem from Ernesto.

[El Nino]

I think the center is right between the 2 big blobs. Loooks like is trying to make a eye. See its warmer cloud tops between the two big blobs

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb.jpg

Indeed you can see some circulation to the South of these 2 blobs going around "something".

[cinlfla]

I've been tracking the front blob you can see a little rotation underneath it.

[Brent]

It defintely appears to be headed to hurricane status soon.

[rnbaida]

I think we should have 65mph winds at 11 tongiht... anyone agree?

[JtSmarts]

Possibly, they may wait until more recon though.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

I think we should have 65mph winds at 11 tongiht... anyone agree?

I think it's possible.
Is recon in there?

[Brent]

I think we should have 65mph winds at 11 tongiht... anyone agree?

I think it's possible.
Is recon in there?

No it's not. It will be around 2am.

[rnbaida]

no, not until 2am... The presure should have gone down to at least 990-993...

[Sean in New Orleans]

It's a pretty large system.

[Opal storm]

Looks like this is going to be a rather large storm.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Oh. Hmm.. They may wait until recon, like another poster said.

I'm very interested to see what they find.

[El Nino]

I think we should have 65mph winds at 11 tongiht... anyone agree?

Maybe, but it depends on reaction of the windgradient in relation with this possible circulation between these 2 blobs. Pressure can drop but winds can wait a few hours before to pick up.

[rnbaida]

Starting to get bigger and more organized... i think we could a nice surprise tomorrow... Maybe 80-90mph winds