Typhoon Ioke Thread #2

[P.K.]

Now TY Ioke (0612).

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) FORMER HR
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 17.5N 180.0E FAIR
MOVE WSW 13KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 16.8N 176.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
48HF 290600UTC 16.3N 173.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
72HF 300600UTC 17.3N 170.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT

[wc is my initials]

do we need a new thread for TY Ioke?

[P.K.]

No need as it is the same storm.

Here is the forecast track:



The 0000 GMT GFDL takes Ioke lower than any previous runs all the way to 860hPa, not sure it will go quite that low!

[Coredesat]

A retitle to something like "Typhoon Ioke (0612)" would probably be sufficient.

As for the GFDL, dang. That's even worse than the 864 on the previous run. Then again, Ioke appears to be completing an EWRC, and is moving into warmer waters with continued low shear, so maybe it's onto something? I still think it's on crack, but its persistence makes me wonder...

[P.K.]

The typhoon model is also showing a rather deep system at 871hPa, that is far lower than the forecast shows. I'm sure it was deepening Saomai far more than it actually did as well though.

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME T 0612 IOKE (0612)
PSTN 270600UTC 17.5N 180.0E
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 17.0N 179.1E -009HPA +009KT
T=12 16.7N 178.2E -022HPA +022KT
T=18 16.4N 177.3E -030HPA +024KT
T=24 16.2N 176.7E -036HPA +028KT
T=30 15.9N 176.0E -036HPA +027KT
T=36 15.8N 175.5E -041HPA +029KT
T=42 15.8N 174.9E -043HPA +032KT
T=48 16.1N 174.1E -043HPA +031KT
T=54 16.3N 173.4E -044HPA +034KT
T=60 16.5N 172.7E -046HPA +033KT
T=66 16.9N 172.0E -046HPA +034KT
T=72 17.4N 171.3E -049HPA +032KT
T=78 17.8N 170.5E -047HPA +033KT
T=84 18.3N 169.7E -047HPA +034KT
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=

[drezee]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2 ... /slp16.png

[bostonseminole]

13+days later

[jimvb]

In the ancient past, people used to think there was an edge or end of the world, and beyond that point, ships would fall off. I suppose fish, whales, and hurricanes would fall off too.

According to Weather Underground ( http://www.wunderground.com/tropical ), the latest advisory for Hurricane Ioke was yesterday, and there is no report for Typhoon Ioke, and this site does report typhoons, so according to this site, that's what happened to Ioke.

And I notice that something happened to the runs of http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ . More than half of them display beyond the end of the world, a series of blank charts. GFDL is the only one presenting reasonable results.

It's good that we have sites like Storm2k to tell us what's really going on, that Hurricane Ioke is now Typhoon Ioke (but still a typhicane - the eastern portions are still a hurricane) and that Ernesto is now a hurricane (Wunderground still has it as a tropical storm); I still don't know Ernesto's 8 am wind speed. And what did I see on the GFDL for Ioke? 220 mph winds?? - presented at a future time as 191 knots. Wow. Category 7.

[bombarderoazul]

Wow! this thing could break the record for staying at cat 5 for a very a long time, what's the record anyway?

And what are the limits for a hurricanes strength, how low can they go and how fast is possible?

[WindRunner]

Still holding steady, and doesn't look like JMA is buying that recurve quite as much as CPHC did.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 17.2N 179.5E GOOD
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 16.6N 176.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
48HF 291200UTC 16.4N 173.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
72HF 301200UTC 17.4N 170.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT

[CrazyC83]

Should we at least change the topic from Hurricane Ioke to Hurricane/Typhoon Ioke?

The GFDL sure is pushing the boundaries of physics on this one...

[mtm4319]

Did the GFDL stop doing runs because Ioke crossed 180? The 6Z run doesn't seem to be out.

And it's improved since late last night --

[Sanibel]

Ioke a monster 920 millibars.

[curtadams]

That pic earns a from me. I expected automated Dvorak to have ramped up the winds but CIMSS actually has them a bit lower http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt11.html - because the radius is higher. Pressure, however, is lower.

[bombarderoazul]

Shouln't the tile on this topic say "Super Typhoon Ioke"

[WindRunner]

mtm . . . in case you didn't notice, we have a MTSAT floater for it as well, without the black GOES horizon. Slightly poorer resolution, but still a stunning image.

[CrazyC83]

Did the GFDL stop doing runs because Ioke crossed 180? The 6Z run doesn't seem to be out.

And it's improved since late last night --

I believe so. I don't think the models go after typhoons.

[Epsilon_Fan]

jeez we got a monster on our hands... bow to the supertyphoon

[JonathanBelles]

whats the conversion from 10-min average to 1-min

[WindRunner]

10 min * 1.148 = 1 min

1 min * .871 = 10 min