Typhoon Ioke Thread #2
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- P.K.
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Now TY Ioke (0612).
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) FORMER HR
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 17.5N 180.0E FAIR
MOVE WSW 13KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 16.8N 176.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
48HF 290600UTC 16.3N 173.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
72HF 300600UTC 17.3N 170.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) FORMER HR
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 17.5N 180.0E FAIR
MOVE WSW 13KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 16.8N 176.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
48HF 290600UTC 16.3N 173.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
72HF 300600UTC 17.3N 170.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
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A retitle to something like "Typhoon Ioke (0612)" would probably be sufficient.
As for the GFDL, dang. That's even worse than the 864 on the previous run. Then again, Ioke appears to be completing an EWRC, and is moving into warmer waters with continued low shear, so maybe it's onto something? I still think it's on crack, but its persistence makes me wonder...
As for the GFDL, dang. That's even worse than the 864 on the previous run. Then again, Ioke appears to be completing an EWRC, and is moving into warmer waters with continued low shear, so maybe it's onto something? I still think it's on crack, but its persistence makes me wonder...

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- P.K.
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The typhoon model is also showing a rather deep system at 871hPa, that is far lower than the forecast shows. I'm sure it was deepening Saomai far more than it actually did as well though.
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME T 0612 IOKE (0612)
PSTN 270600UTC 17.5N 180.0E
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 17.0N 179.1E -009HPA +009KT
T=12 16.7N 178.2E -022HPA +022KT
T=18 16.4N 177.3E -030HPA +024KT
T=24 16.2N 176.7E -036HPA +028KT
T=30 15.9N 176.0E -036HPA +027KT
T=36 15.8N 175.5E -041HPA +029KT
T=42 15.8N 174.9E -043HPA +032KT
T=48 16.1N 174.1E -043HPA +031KT
T=54 16.3N 173.4E -044HPA +034KT
T=60 16.5N 172.7E -046HPA +033KT
T=66 16.9N 172.0E -046HPA +034KT
T=72 17.4N 171.3E -049HPA +032KT
T=78 17.8N 170.5E -047HPA +033KT
T=84 18.3N 169.7E -047HPA +034KT
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME T 0612 IOKE (0612)
PSTN 270600UTC 17.5N 180.0E
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 17.0N 179.1E -009HPA +009KT
T=12 16.7N 178.2E -022HPA +022KT
T=18 16.4N 177.3E -030HPA +024KT
T=24 16.2N 176.7E -036HPA +028KT
T=30 15.9N 176.0E -036HPA +027KT
T=36 15.8N 175.5E -041HPA +029KT
T=42 15.8N 174.9E -043HPA +032KT
T=48 16.1N 174.1E -043HPA +031KT
T=54 16.3N 173.4E -044HPA +034KT
T=60 16.5N 172.7E -046HPA +033KT
T=66 16.9N 172.0E -046HPA +034KT
T=72 17.4N 171.3E -049HPA +032KT
T=78 17.8N 170.5E -047HPA +033KT
T=84 18.3N 169.7E -047HPA +034KT
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=
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- bostonseminole
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13+days later


Last edited by bostonseminole on Sun Aug 27, 2006 7:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The End of the World
In the ancient past, people used to think there was an edge or end of the world, and beyond that point, ships would fall off. I suppose fish, whales, and hurricanes would fall off too.
According to Weather Underground ( http://www.wunderground.com/tropical ), the latest advisory for Hurricane Ioke was yesterday, and there is no report for Typhoon Ioke, and this site does report typhoons, so according to this site, that's what happened to Ioke.
And I notice that something happened to the runs of http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ . More than half of them display beyond the end of the world, a series of blank charts. GFDL is the only one presenting reasonable results.
It's good that we have sites like Storm2k to tell us what's really going on, that Hurricane Ioke is now Typhoon Ioke (but still a typhicane - the eastern portions are still a hurricane) and that Ernesto is now a hurricane (Wunderground still has it as a tropical storm); I still don't know Ernesto's 8 am wind speed. And what did I see on the GFDL for Ioke? 220 mph winds?? - presented at a future time as 191 knots. Wow. Category 7.
According to Weather Underground ( http://www.wunderground.com/tropical ), the latest advisory for Hurricane Ioke was yesterday, and there is no report for Typhoon Ioke, and this site does report typhoons, so according to this site, that's what happened to Ioke.
And I notice that something happened to the runs of http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ . More than half of them display beyond the end of the world, a series of blank charts. GFDL is the only one presenting reasonable results.
It's good that we have sites like Storm2k to tell us what's really going on, that Hurricane Ioke is now Typhoon Ioke (but still a typhicane - the eastern portions are still a hurricane) and that Ernesto is now a hurricane (Wunderground still has it as a tropical storm); I still don't know Ernesto's 8 am wind speed. And what did I see on the GFDL for Ioke? 220 mph winds?? - presented at a future time as 191 knots. Wow. Category 7.
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- WindRunner
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Still holding steady, and doesn't look like JMA is buying that recurve quite as much as CPHC did.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 17.2N 179.5E GOOD
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 16.6N 176.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
48HF 291200UTC 16.4N 173.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
72HF 301200UTC 17.4N 170.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 17.2N 179.5E GOOD
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 16.6N 176.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
48HF 291200UTC 16.4N 173.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
72HF 301200UTC 17.4N 170.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
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- S2K Supporter
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That pic earns a
from me. I expected automated Dvorak to have ramped up the winds but CIMSS actually has them a bit lower http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt11.html - because the radius is higher. Pressure, however, is lower.

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- WindRunner
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mtm . . . in case you didn't notice, we have a MTSAT floater for it as well, without the black GOES horizon. Slightly poorer resolution, but still a stunning image.


Last edited by WindRunner on Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Epsilon_Fan
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