Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[saints63213]

1713 1750N 07359W 03045 0144 064 020 116 060 024 03236 0000000000

Thats in minutes 63213.

I realized that after I posted I was hoping no one would read my post. LOL. yea thats 64 winds not 24.....

[Brent]

84knots

Where? What?

[Scorpion]

84knots

Wrong column

[WindRunner]

Wouldn't it be a little amusing if they couldn't close off a center?

No, I guess that would be more just plain strange . . .

[Dean4Storms]

Needless to say if Ernesto makes it to the Panhandle it will have more time over very warm water and be able to deepen alot more than if it skirts the peninsula making landfall near Tampa!

[mtm4319]

[Bgator]

Where do you see 84 kts?>

[Wx_Warrior]

Oh yea....not good for Panhandle in that scenario

[WindRunner]

Where do you see 84 kts?>

In the dewpoint column . . .

[clfenwi]

12Z UKMET is really similar to the 00Z run

HURRICANE ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 73.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 27.08.2006 16.7N 73.0W STRONG
00UTC 28.08.2006 18.3N 74.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.08.2006 19.7N 76.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.08.2006 21.5N 78.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.08.2006 22.7N 81.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2006 23.6N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2006 25.5N 83.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2006 27.2N 83.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2006 28.4N 83.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2006 31.3N 81.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.09.2006 34.0N 79.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

.

[Noles2006]

Just gotta say that latest run of the GFDL would be pretty nasty for us on the Apalachee Bay...

[fci]

Before I start wading through countless posts, one question if someone doesn't mind answering...

How is Ernesto plowing through that ridge? I thought he was supposed to go west or wnw for a while before gradually turning more northward.

Josh linker just explained it on tv. The low east of florida is going to weaken the ridge as it crosses Florida. That is where Ernesto will begin to Turn north..when he finds that weakness.

Isn't that the golden question?
WHERE will Ernesto be when he turns north?
I am not sold on it being after he passes the Keys.

In spite of what is being said, I just don't buy into a NW then WNW and the N track. Nothing scientific to back my opinion but it just does nto seem logical to me. Way too much "jig-jog" (not exactly a meteorological term, huh?)

[Scorpion]

Wouldn't it be a little amusing if they couldn't close off a center?

No, I guess that would be more just plain strange . . .

It's a hurricane with a developing eyewall...impossible.

[chris_fit]

DOH! Sorry

[Thunder44]

Wouldn't it be a little amusing if they couldn't close off a center?

No, I guess that would be more just plain strange . . .

That's apparently starting to look the case from the last plot. There may a weak, broad center now though.

[Wx_Warrior]

The whole state of Florida is on alert...

[wxman57]

I think the center Wxman57 ID'd was not the overall center but a vortex. On Guantanomo radar I saw a very tight vortex move NNW off Haiti and disappear into the general Ely flow which suggests a hurricane center still S of Haiti. I fear it may have been a big tornado.

It's definitely hard to find the center on this thing. We've proven that satellite imagery can be deceiving, even to those of us who've been using it since it was first available (when it was chisled into stone tablets).

[ronjon]

If it moved WNW/W without any NW/NNW jogs from the position it is at now, how much of Cuba would it cross before going into the GOM?

Very little - a worst case scenario for an exploding storm - super high heat content of those waters south of Cuba.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z GFS thru heart of FL..

[SunnyThoughts]

I think after the information gathered from the NOAA synoptics flight tonight is entered into the models...we will know SO much more.