I realized that after I posted I was hoping no one would read my post. LOL. yea thats 64 winds not 24.....Javlin wrote:1713 1750N 07359W 03045 0144 064 020 116 060 024 03236 0000000000
Thats in minutes 63213.
Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1
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12Z UKMET is really similar to the 00Z run
HURRICANE ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 73.0W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.08.2006 16.7N 73.0W STRONG
00UTC 28.08.2006 18.3N 74.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.08.2006 19.7N 76.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.08.2006 21.5N 78.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.08.2006 22.7N 81.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2006 23.6N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2006 25.5N 83.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2006 27.2N 83.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2006 28.4N 83.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2006 31.3N 81.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.09.2006 34.0N 79.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
.
HURRICANE ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 73.0W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.08.2006 16.7N 73.0W STRONG
00UTC 28.08.2006 18.3N 74.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.08.2006 19.7N 76.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.08.2006 21.5N 78.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.08.2006 22.7N 81.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2006 23.6N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2006 25.5N 83.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2006 27.2N 83.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2006 28.4N 83.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2006 31.3N 81.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.09.2006 34.0N 79.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
.
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Rainband wrote:Josh linker just explained it on tv. The low east of florida is going to weaken the ridge as it crosses Florida. That is where Ernesto will begin to Turn north..when he finds that weakness.southerngale wrote:Before I start wading through countless posts, one question if someone doesn't mind answering...
How is Ernesto plowing through that ridge? I thought he was supposed to go west or wnw for a while before gradually turning more northward.
Isn't that the golden question?
WHERE will Ernesto be when he turns north?
I am not sold on it being after he passes the Keys.
In spite of what is being said, I just don't buy into a NW then WNW and the N track. Nothing scientific to back my opinion but it just does nto seem logical to me. Way too much "jig-jog" (not exactly a meteorological term, huh?)

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curtadams wrote:I think the center Wxman57 ID'd was not the overall center but a vortex. On Guantanomo radar I saw a very tight vortex move NNW off Haiti and disappear into the general Ely flow which suggests a hurricane center still S of Haiti. I fear it may have been a big tornado.
It's definitely hard to find the center on this thing. We've proven that satellite imagery can be deceiving, even to those of us who've been using it since it was first available (when it was chisled into stone tablets).
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