LAwxrgal wrote:ronjon wrote:
Dean4storms, you beat me to the punch. I was just going to comment on the GFDL being the most consistent model with the last 3 runs nearly identical - then you brought up yesterdays 06Z and wow - I'm putting my money on this model - it was the only one that modeled KAT correctly in S FL and it seems the best on Ernie.
In comparing the two runs, it seems the second run wants this storm to ride across Cuba. Wouldn't that make a weaker storm when/if it emerges? And also, both runs have E going into the same area but at different angles. I just found that interesting and wanted to comment. Thoughts?
It would likely be weaker spending that much time over Cuba, but it would have the whole eastern Gulf to re-organize and further separation from the landmass of Florida.
In the first run it begins a turn more NNE in response to the shortwave. In the last run it gets trapped underneath and may stall, an Omega block so to speak.