Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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HURAKAN
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#401 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:43 am

boca wrote:If Ernesto rides the spine of Cuba it will be a wave hitting Florida not a storm.


There are no mountains in the northern coast of Cuba. Therefore, I think it would hold itself but not dissipate.
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#402 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:43 am

There's only one reason for the central vortex seen in the CDO to jerk back west, that is, the surface center is keeping it in tow as it courses up the spine.

As far as I know weak tropical storms crash when they get dragged over the Cuban mountains in dry 2006 conditions.
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#403 Postby cpdaman » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:43 am

do u think it will actually ride most of cuba i am intrested to see the 11 am coordinates because it has been consistently moving more north than west and if this continues we will have a problemo

btw the cdo has been jerking back west than moving north for the last 24 hours
Last edited by cpdaman on Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#404 Postby tgenius » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:43 am

Wow..they just showed Broward and theres an apt complex (big one) thats FULL of roof tiles that are to be laid out.. even trop storm wind would be enough to make those projectiles!
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#405 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:44 am

I never said it would ride most of Cuba. I said the surface feature is transecting Cuba further south than the CDO makes it appear.

I WISH WE HAD SOME HARD DATA ON THE LLC
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#406 Postby Canelaw99 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:45 am

ncdowneast wrote:actually current projected path for landfall is a good one since it will make landfall over sparsely populated areas of south florida and may limit any damages and destruction.Here in NC it looks to make landfall just on the eastern shore of bogue banks which is more populated and tourist area.Of course this track will change again and it could be further east if it does as long as a blocking high doesnt form to the NE of the storm when it leaves florida then i think we will be ok.


Hate to tell you, but the current 2am Wed. NHC forecast point is directly over my city - Homestead, FL. It's NOT sparsely populated. In fact, it has become rather populated over the last 5 yrs. while I've lived there. It would be much better for it to go in over the Everglades and die there. Now that is sparsely populated areas of S. FL. Unfortunately, the current path has it affecting Southern Dade, Metro Dade, Broward, etc. which is definitely a worst case scenario.
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#407 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:45 am

cpdaman wrote:the south east quad is now firing very well (no longer infuenced by haiti) and the storm appears to be maintaining its own

lets all pray this takes the longer road over cuba

however the infared representation is decent lets see if convection fires on north coast of cuba or if the mountain continue to erode nw quadrant

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html


I agree, convection holding together quite well...
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#408 Postby Thatsmrhurricane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:46 am

Anyone else?

I see the storm center at 20.5N 75.5W. Moving NW.
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#409 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:47 am

Canelaw99 wrote:
ncdowneast wrote:actually current projected path for landfall is a good one since it will make landfall over sparsely populated areas of south florida and may limit any damages and destruction.Here in NC it looks to make landfall just on the eastern shore of bogue banks which is more populated and tourist area.Of course this track will change again and it could be further east if it does as long as a blocking high doesnt form to the NE of the storm when it leaves florida then i think we will be ok.


Hate to tell you, but the current 2am Wed. NHC forecast point is directly over my city - Homestead, FL. It's NOT sparsely populated. In fact, it has become rather populated over the last 5 yrs. while I've lived there. It would be much better for it to go in over the Everglades and die there. Now that is sparsely populated areas of S. FL. Unfortunately, the current path has it affecting Southern Dade, Metro Dade, Broward, etc. which is definitely a worst case scenario.


yep and we may be on the bad side (east side) even if it goes through the everglades. I'd rather it go east of us.
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#410 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:48 am

Look at the loop and click on the Lat/long and tropical forecast points, I'm seeing alot of convection firing and it appears the center would be along 75, which would be a little ENE of the NHC track, IMO
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
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#411 Postby cpdaman » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:48 am

with all respect to life and property is this what we live to track or what
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#412 Postby HeatherAKC » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:49 am

Posted: Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:46 am Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Anyone else?

I see the storm center at 20.5N 75.5W. Moving NW.


If that's the case, it would be over land for VERY little time........?
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#413 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:50 am

Blown_away wrote:Look at the loop and click on the Lat/long and tropical forecast points, I'm seeing alot of convection firing and it appears the center would be along 75, which would be a little ENE of the NHC track, IMO
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html


I am impressed with how the convection is holding together even though the center is over land. It could be indications that with a nearly perfect env in the FL straits it could intensify rapidly.

Its growing in size also.
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#414 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:50 am

You are making a basic mistake using upper-level WV to determine a surface feature location.
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#415 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:52 am

cpdaman wrote:with all respect to life and property is this what we live to track or what


It's my drugs & porno! :D :D
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#416 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:55 am

While I think that Ernesto is most certainly a TD this morning (no data suggest otherwise), I do think that there is quite a potential for it to become a major hurricane over the Gulf Stream east of the Carolinas on Friday as it's blocked by high pressure moving off the New England coast. Too soon to tell how far offshore it'll be at that time. Could be like Ophelia and just graze the Outer Banks of NC before finally heading out to sea early next week.
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#417 Postby Thatsmrhurricane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:55 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb-l.jpg

Center could be closer to 20.5N 74W? We need recon bad.
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#418 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:57 am

For anyone underestimating this system remember in 1999 all the flooding that Irene caused in South Florida as a weak hurricane. Remember that we have had a very rainy week and the ground over most of South Florida is saturated with water, and Ernesto shouldn't be moving very fast over the area. Therefore, I would expect at this point Ernesto to be more of a rain threat to South Florida than a wind one.
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#419 Postby artist » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:58 am

wxman57 - what are your thoughts on it regaining strength & how much before hitting s fl.? thanks for your time.
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#420 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:59 am

Thatsmrhurricane wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb-l.jpg

Center could be closer to 20.5N 74W? We need recon bad.


Obs across southern Cuba suggest a location near 20N/75.5W. While I did see a report of 30kt winds on the coast east of the center last hour, winds are down to 10 kts 20nm east of the center this hour and 10 kts out of the north about 20 miles west of the center. Not much of a wind event.

No recon over Cuba. Casto doesn't allow it, usually. Maybe no recon until tomorrow.
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