Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
TampaFl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1904
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 11:23 am
Location: Tampa, FL

#21 Postby TampaFl » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:25 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Right now you can clearly see the ridge coming over top of Ernesto right now and cloud pattern above him is flattening out...WWd Jog to follow..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html


You can clearly see the upper high centered over S. Ga. What if it moves more east than southeast?. Would that allow Ernesto to move more nw longer then turn north. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

Robert

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
Last edited by TampaFl on Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:27 am, edited 3 times in total.
0 likes   

JPmia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1070
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:01 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#22 Postby JPmia » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:26 am

Here's to hoping that Cuba and anything else that we can throw in really disrupts this storm...b/c that 11am track and latest model guidance would be a terrible situation for us down here if this storm can regain strength into a major. :eek:
0 likes   

CocoCreek
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 52
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:26 pm
Location: Coconut Creek, FL

#23 Postby CocoCreek » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:26 am

Wthrman13 wrote:Overall, Ernesto is pretty disorganized right now. The LLC looks broad and elongated E-W (pretty much like it has been ever since this time yesterday, actually). Radar, however, shows a fairly vigorous MLC near the north Coast of Cuba, and there could be a tighter LLC underneath that. In the upper levels, at least in the short term, the UL north of the system continues to dive SW and is now imparting some light NW shear, restricting the outflow in that quadrant. I expect this to be a short-term problem though, as the UL looks fairly weak, and as it continues SW, it should end up in a favorable position to enhance outflow, similar to what happened with the other UL that is now located near the BOC. I expect the storm to emerge off the northeast coast of Cuba within the next couple of hours, and probably start to restrengthen after that, although it could take a while.


Really? That soon? So you think that the LLC might end up relocating under the MLC which is closer to the coast?
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7374
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

#24 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:32 am

I certainly can see that as a possibility, Its a weak storm at present
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#25 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:33 am

That plot track makes it look like it will clip eastern CUba and re-emerge sooner than I thought.
0 likes   

User avatar
Wthrman13
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 502
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 12:44 pm
Location: West Lafayette, IN
Contact:

#26 Postby Wthrman13 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:33 am

This storm has a history of having a broad, weakly defined LLC that keeps reforming under new bursts of convection, and it may be doing so again. The center is very difficult to locate on visible, and it probably does not even qualify as a center now. However, there is broad cyclonic turning in the low-levels. It's a toss-up whether it reforms or not, and how soon. We just have to wait and see.
0 likes   

User avatar
westmoon
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 138
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:42 am
Location: Tampa Bay, FL
Contact:

#27 Postby westmoon » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:35 am

the LLC might end up relocating under the MLC which is closer to the coast?


That could change everything
Last edited by westmoon on Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
theworld
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 197
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:33 pm
Location: DelMarVa

#28 Postby theworld » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:35 am



Hey all, good morning. I'm not surprised to see what I see on this loop, given it just finished transversing some much warmer SST's there, just south of the tip of E Cuba. Same to be said when it exits North.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34009
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#29 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:38 am

Even if it becomes a wave, conditions are very much ripe for it closing back up and restrengthening...
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

#30 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:39 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Some thoughts and observations...

Right now, the LLC may be almost somewhat exposed on visible imagery, which may indicate some light to moderate middle to upper-level shear from the ULL in the vicinity of the Bahamas. In response to the current trough moving east-southeast through the east-central U.S., the ULL may slowly retrograde west-southwestward through the next 24 to 40 hours, allowing the mid-level Atlantic ridging to build westward and temporarily force Ernesto on a north-northwest to northwest movement as it exits Cuba and enters the southwest Bahamas. This retrograding of the ULL may further increase the shear over Ernesto as it emerges off Cuba, limiting reintensification after exiting Cuba, as the LLC may still be poorly defined after the storm crosses Cuba. As the ULL may weaken and retrograde, though, after the mid-level Atlantic ridging builds westward, the ridging may weaken and shift eastward in response to the aforementioned trough as it moves into the southeast United States and Mid-Atlantic. This, along with the ULL retrograding, may decrease the shear over Ernesto and allow for slow intensification as it may get much closer to southeast Florida.

As the developing ridge weakness may be felt, it may allow for a more northward turn of Ernesto as it brushes the southeast and east-central Florida coastline just offshore. This may allow for eventual impacts to the Carolinas.

Image

Any thoughts?
0 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

#31 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:40 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Even if it becomes a wave, conditions are very much ripe for it closing back up and restrengthening...



exactly. Even if it's a wave, it will still cause heavin rain problems for Florida and then more than likely build in intensity once again before hitting the east coast(or coming close). Still looks like a cat 1 cane after Florida, but the question is, how close to the coast will it be or will it hit it head on?
0 likes   

User avatar
mj
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed May 04, 2005 8:27 pm
Location: Cape Coral, Fl.

#32 Postby mj » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:41 am

What's up with the forecast points on the sat. pictures? Am I missing something here? Check it out.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
0 likes   

Lifesgud2
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 134
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 9:05 pm
Location: South Florida Baby

#33 Postby Lifesgud2 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:42 am

tgenius wrote:I'm getting my gas at 2am Gatorcane, I refuse to get into long lines...


Dont worry, the lines are rediculous already.. No food at Publix, gas lines are 1/4 miile long...Crazy...
0 likes   

Terry
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1450
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 8:25 pm
Location: Lakeland and Anna Maria Island, FL
Contact:

#34 Postby Terry » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:43 am

Someone needs to adjust those forecast points.
0 likes   

Stormavoider
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
Location: Spring Hill Fl.

#35 Postby Stormavoider » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:52 am

I think the center is emerging or has relocated to the north coast of Cuba at about 75.5W.
0 likes   

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

#36 Postby cpdaman » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:53 am

is the ull in the bahamas mentioned in any discussion of the storm i mean really it is right in it's path WTF
0 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

#37 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:53 am

Wthrman13 wrote:Overall, Ernesto is pretty disorganized right now. The LLC looks broad and elongated E-W (pretty much like it has been ever since this time yesterday, actually). Radar, however, shows a fairly vigorous MLC near the north Coast of Cuba, and there could be a tighter LLC underneath that. In the upper levels, at least in the short term, the UL north of the system continues to dive SW and is now imparting some light NW shear, restricting the outflow in that quadrant. I expect this to be a short-term problem though, as the UL looks fairly weak, and as it continues SW, it should end up in a favorable position to enhance outflow, similar to what happened with the other UL that is now located near the BOC. I expect the storm to emerge off the northeast coast of Cuba within the next couple of hours, and probably start to restrengthen after that, although it could take a while.



wow, emerging the next couple of hours??? I thought it would be in Cuba all day...Hmm, let's hope it doesn't get very strong once it emerges off the coast, as Florida hasn't had much time to prepare. Like you said earlier though, I think the East Coast has to worry more.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#38 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:54 am

Appears to be spending less time over Cuba than I expected.


I believe it is picking up forward speed.
0 likes   

Droop12
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Indianapolis

#39 Postby Droop12 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:54 am

Yea, if it misses Fl. to the east look out Carolinas, it may be a major.
0 likes   

Droop12
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Indianapolis

#40 Postby Droop12 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:58 am

Im concerned about the small size of Ernesto. Small storms, even if they are weak, tend to wind up alot quicker than big ones. As we saw yesterday, they can also wind sown just as quick.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cleveland Kent Evans, Cpv17, kevin, Pelicane and 50 guests