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Some thoughts and observations...
Right now, the LLC may be almost somewhat exposed on visible imagery, which may indicate some light to moderate middle to upper-level shear from the ULL in the vicinity of the Bahamas. In response to the current trough moving east-southeast through the east-central U.S., the ULL may slowly retrograde west-southwestward through the next 24 to 40 hours, allowing the mid-level Atlantic ridging to build westward and temporarily force Ernesto on a north-northwest to northwest movement as it exits Cuba and enters the southwest Bahamas. This retrograding of the ULL may further increase the shear over Ernesto as it emerges off Cuba, limiting reintensification after exiting Cuba, as the LLC may still be poorly defined after the storm crosses Cuba. As the ULL may weaken and retrograde, though, after the mid-level Atlantic ridging builds westward, the ridging may weaken and shift eastward in response to the aforementioned trough as it moves into the southeast United States and Mid-Atlantic. This, along with the ULL retrograding, may decrease the shear over Ernesto and allow for slow intensification as it may get much closer to southeast Florida.
As the developing ridge weakness may be felt, it may allow for a more northward turn of Ernesto as it brushes the southeast and east-central Florida coastline just offshore. This may allow for eventual impacts to the Carolinas.
Any thoughts?