Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

[Droop12]

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.
I didnt see this from earlier, and it doesnt sound good.

[westmoon]

Local met here in Myrtle Beach just mentioned that it looks like the center is reforming to the south of Cuba. Is he seeing something that no one else is? Or maybe he meant to say north.

I would guess he meant north of Cuba. I don't see anything forming to the south

[ronjon]

I dunno, but it looks to me that a new center is reforming off the north coast - if true, this is not good news.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[bayoubebe]

Who is the BAMD and why is there forecast line showing a La/MS border landfall?

That seems "loopy" to me.

[Droop12]

Its a forecast model, and a bad one at that.

[gatorcane]

Who is the BAMD and why is there forecast line showing a La/MS border landfall?

That seems "loopy" to me.

BAMS are not good at these lattitudes....so I wouldn't go by them.

[bayoubebe]

Thanks for the verification, evidently it is bad, as it is total disagreeance with the others.

[wjs3]

Who is the BAMD and why is there forecast line showing a La/MS border landfall?

That seems "loopy" to me.

This might tell you about the model, bayoubebe...as well as some others.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/F2.html

[gatorcane]

Thanks for the verification, evidently it is bad, as it is total disagreeance with the others.

BAMS have problems forecasting short-wave troughs hence they should only be used in the deep tropics.

[Hurricaneman]

I dunno, but it looks to me that a new center is reforming off the north coast - if true, this is not good news.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Looks to me like the center has relocated on the north coast of cuba, that may be extremely bad news

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Any Pro have Obs. from Cuba?

21N 76W? Looks east but can't tell.

About to start leaving the coast? Castro is sick, nobody cares, not like we were dropping bombs or anything.

[gatorcane]

I dunno, but it looks to me that a new center is reforming off the north coast - if true, this is not good news.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Looks to me like the center has relocated on the north coast of cuba, that may be extremely bad news

yes but it could mean another shift right of the models and take this east of SE Florida. ...hopefully

[seaswing]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html
You guys gotta check this out. Look at the low level clouds streaming into the storm from the southeast side. I don't think that is a good thing. Looks like the low level convergence is pretty good.

I noticed this too, it's like it's sucking in that warm water through a straw..hehe

Thats exactly what I was thinking...looked just like a straw!!

[jasons2k]

I mean nice job noticing it. I didn't. Trying to compliment here.

OH, OK I got it - thanks! Sorry for the misunderstanding. Coffee has been a little weak on this Monday AM

[JtSmarts]

That could be bad for the Carolinas and NE

[Hurricaneman]

I never thought I would say this, but Im keeping an eye on Ernesto

[Sanibel]

I keep telling people - read the convection - it is the best telegrapher of potential intensity.

Look at this convection!


http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

[ConvergenceZone]

I dunno, but it looks to me that a new center is reforming off the north coast - if true, this is not good news.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Looks to me like the center has relocated on the north coast of cuba, that may be extremely bad news

yes but it could mean another shift right of the models and take this east of SE Florida. ...hopefully

while this would be good news for Florida, it would be horrible news for the east coast as it will have more time to strengthen.

[westmoon]

Does anybody know when the next recon mission goes out, and are they allowed to fly over Cuba?

[CronkPSU]

well it may be bad news if it finally takes that more western path and stays over water longer before recurving..looks like it wants to take the shortest path possible to miami and won't be very strong...MAYBE it may get as strong as katrina was when it hit S Fl

worst scenario though is what i am fearing, a WNW path off the coast of cuba and strengthening quite a bit, though hopefully it will hit in a very less populated area like wilma