Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4
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THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.
I didnt see this from earlier, and it doesnt sound good.
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.
I didnt see this from earlier, and it doesnt sound good.
Last edited by Droop12 on Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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I dunno, but it looks to me that a new center is reforming off the north coast - if true, this is not good news.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
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bayoubebe wrote:Who is the BAMD and why is there forecast line showing a La/MS border landfall?
That seems "loopy" to me.
This might tell you about the model, bayoubebe...as well as some others.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/F2.html
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- Hurricaneman
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ronjon wrote:I dunno, but it looks to me that a new center is reforming off the north coast - if true, this is not good news.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
Looks to me like the center has relocated on the north coast of cuba, that may be extremely bad news
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- gatorcane
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Hurricaneman wrote:ronjon wrote:I dunno, but it looks to me that a new center is reforming off the north coast - if true, this is not good news.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
Looks to me like the center has relocated on the north coast of cuba, that may be extremely bad news
yes but it could mean another shift right of the models and take this east of SE Florida. ...hopefully
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- seaswing
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Thats exactly what I was thinking...looked just like a straw!!chris_fit wrote:SouthFloridawx wrote:http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html
You guys gotta check this out. Look at the low level clouds streaming into the storm from the southeast side. I don't think that is a good thing. Looks like the low level convergence is pretty good.
I noticed this too, it's like it's sucking in that warm water through a straw..hehe
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- Hurricaneman
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I keep telling people - read the convection - it is the best telegrapher of potential intensity.
Look at this convection!
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html
Look at this convection!
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html
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- ConvergenceZone
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gatorcane wrote:Hurricaneman wrote:ronjon wrote:I dunno, but it looks to me that a new center is reforming off the north coast - if true, this is not good news.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
Looks to me like the center has relocated on the north coast of cuba, that may be extremely bad news
yes but it could mean another shift right of the models and take this east of SE Florida. ...hopefully
while this would be good news for Florida, it would be horrible news for the east coast as it will have more time to strengthen.
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well it may be bad news if it finally takes that more western path and stays over water longer before recurving..looks like it wants to take the shortest path possible to miami and won't be very strong...MAYBE it may get as strong as katrina was when it hit S Fl
worst scenario though is what i am fearing, a WNW path off the coast of cuba and strengthening quite a bit, though hopefully it will hit in a very less populated area like wilma
worst scenario though is what i am fearing, a WNW path off the coast of cuba and strengthening quite a bit, though hopefully it will hit in a very less populated area like wilma
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