TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

Bgator · #141 Postby **Bgator** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:25 pm

To me it looks better than it did last night, and every time at night you guys always say its a TD, well its not, recon has shown winds stronger than TD and they ahvent even been in center...

caneman · #142 Postby **caneman** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:25 pm

Yep, you're right. I was thinking more from the Havana area. Point being if it run thru the straits and up the entire West coast that would give time to get even stronger. Lotta ifs but with that Westerly jog and current motion ya just don't know.

ronjon · #143 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:25 pm

Looks more and more likely that the track will shift west based on the latest model runs and movement over the last 6-9 hrs. Now coming up the SW coast or middle of the peninsula rather than the SE coast.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Fusion13 · #144 Postby **Fusion13** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:25 pm

Accuweather is calling ERNESTO a Cat 1 before landfall still.

Trugunzn · #145 Postby **Trugunzn** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:26 pm

How fas tis this moving?

#146 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:27 pm

caneman wrote:Yep, you're right. I was thinking more from the Havana area. Point being if it run thru the straits and up the entire West coast that would give time to get even stronger. Lotta ifs but with that Westerly jog and current motion ya just don't know.

I wouldn't have argued with you unless I had something to back it up with.

Website · #147 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:27 pm

Trugunzn wrote:How fas tis this moving?

11 mph as of 8pm.

#148 Postby **TampaFl** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:28 pm

8:00PM postion

caneman · #149 Postby **caneman** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:28 pm

Fusion13 wrote:Accuweather is calling ERNESTO a Cat 1 before landfall still.

If he shakes free into the Gulf I could see at Cat. 2

Trugunzn · #150 Postby **Trugunzn** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:28 pm

If it went back over water it would take 28 hours over water if it continues moving 11 mph toward southern tip florida

28_Storms · #151 Postby **28_Storms** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:28 pm

How can this thing possibly be a cat 1 with it staying over land this long?

miamicanes177 · #152 Postby **miamicanes177** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:30 pm

Is it just me or have the models shifted WEST
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Trugunzn · #153 Postby **Trugunzn** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:30 pm

28_Storms wrote:How can this thing possibly be a cat 1 with it staying over land this long?

Easly get to to cat1 or maybe 2 because of very low shear and high heat and if it hold the convection like right now. No Doubt!

#154 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:31 pm

yes i believe the models are shifting west

#155 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:31 pm

Bgator wrote:To me it looks better than it did last night, and every time at night you guys always say its a TD, well its not, recon has shown winds stronger than TD and they ahvent even been in center...

To me, it looks more sheared with much less convection tonight. Recon did find winds in the mid 40s at FL, but there is little evidence of an LLC on surface obs. The LLC was better defined yesterday than it is now. 35kt surface winds don't = TS if there isn't an LLC. This is very good news for south Florida wind-wise. The longer the shear continues, the lower the chances of a significant wind event. The only problem is if it moves too far west before turning north and tracks west of the peninsula.

Trugunzn · #156 Postby **Trugunzn** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:31 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:Is it just me or have the models shifted WEST
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

more west means longer in water and deeper heat content.

Website · #157 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:34 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:Is it just me or have the models shifted WEST
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Yep. NHC is now on the far right of all of those tracks. They are going to have shift west at 11.

#158 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:35 pm

Brent wrote:
miamicanes177 wrote:Is it just me or have the models shifted WEST
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Yep. NHC is now on the far right of all of those tracks. They are going to have shift west at 11.

maybe but they said they expected it to resume a more NW movement shortly...so they may not shift that far if at all.

krisj · #159 Postby **krisj** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:35 pm

Our local met here said that their Vipir forcast thing said that it would go west of the NHC and go mostly up the West of FL and then cross over inland of Charleston.
http://www.wcbd.com/midatlantic/cbd/new ... -0017.html
Click on the link to the last forcast.
Infact, it was much like the models are showing now.

johngaltfla · #160 Postby **johngaltfla** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:36 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:Is it just me or have the models shifted WEST
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Models have definitely shifted West. Thus why on the previous page, the only path in my memory that resembles this storm where it's at now and where I think it could go is that of Donna from 1960.

TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

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