TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

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Bgator
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#141 Postby Bgator » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:25 pm

To me it looks better than it did last night, and every time at night you guys always say its a TD, well its not, recon has shown winds stronger than TD and they ahvent even been in center...
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#142 Postby caneman » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:25 pm

Yep, you're right. I was thinking more from the Havana area. Point being if it run thru the straits and up the entire West coast that would give time to get even stronger. Lotta ifs but with that Westerly jog and current motion ya just don't know.
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#143 Postby ronjon » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:25 pm

Looks more and more likely that the track will shift west based on the latest model runs and movement over the last 6-9 hrs. Now coming up the SW coast or middle of the peninsula rather than the SE coast.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif
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#144 Postby Fusion13 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:25 pm

Accuweather is calling ERNESTO a Cat 1 before landfall still.

Image
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#145 Postby Trugunzn » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:26 pm

How fas tis this moving?
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#146 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:27 pm

caneman wrote:Yep, you're right. I was thinking more from the Havana area. Point being if it run thru the straits and up the entire West coast that would give time to get even stronger. Lotta ifs but with that Westerly jog and current motion ya just don't know.


I wouldn't have argued with you unless I had something to back it up with. :D
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#147 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:27 pm

Trugunzn wrote:How fas tis this moving?


11 mph as of 8pm.
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#148 Postby TampaFl » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:28 pm

8:00PM postion

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#149 Postby caneman » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:28 pm

Fusion13 wrote:Accuweather is calling ERNESTO a Cat 1 before landfall still.

Image


If he shakes free into the Gulf I could see at Cat. 2
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#150 Postby Trugunzn » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:28 pm

If it went back over water it would take 28 hours over water if it continues moving 11 mph toward southern tip florida
Last edited by Trugunzn on Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#151 Postby 28_Storms » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:28 pm

How can this thing possibly be a cat 1 with it staying over land this long?
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#152 Postby miamicanes177 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:30 pm

Is it just me or have the models shifted WEST
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif
Last edited by miamicanes177 on Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#153 Postby Trugunzn » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:30 pm

28_Storms wrote:How can this thing possibly be a cat 1 with it staying over land this long?


Easly get to to cat1 or maybe 2 because of very low shear and high heat and if it hold the convection like right now. No Doubt!
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#154 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:31 pm

yes i believe the models are shifting west
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#155 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:31 pm

Bgator wrote:To me it looks better than it did last night, and every time at night you guys always say its a TD, well its not, recon has shown winds stronger than TD and they ahvent even been in center...


To me, it looks more sheared with much less convection tonight. Recon did find winds in the mid 40s at FL, but there is little evidence of an LLC on surface obs. The LLC was better defined yesterday than it is now. 35kt surface winds don't = TS if there isn't an LLC. This is very good news for south Florida wind-wise. The longer the shear continues, the lower the chances of a significant wind event. The only problem is if it moves too far west before turning north and tracks west of the peninsula.
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#156 Postby Trugunzn » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:31 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:Is it just me or have the models shifted WEST
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif



more west means longer in water and deeper heat content.
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#157 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:34 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:Is it just me or have the models shifted WEST
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif


Yep. NHC is now on the far right of all of those tracks. They are going to have shift west at 11.
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#158 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:35 pm

Brent wrote:
miamicanes177 wrote:Is it just me or have the models shifted WEST
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif


Yep. NHC is now on the far right of all of those tracks. They are going to have shift west at 11.


maybe but they said they expected it to resume a more NW movement shortly...so they may not shift that far if at all.
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#159 Postby krisj » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:35 pm

Our local met here said that their Vipir forcast thing said that it would go west of the NHC and go mostly up the West of FL and then cross over inland of Charleston.
http://www.wcbd.com/midatlantic/cbd/new ... -0017.html
Click on the link to the last forcast.
Infact, it was much like the models are showing now.
Last edited by krisj on Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#160 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:36 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:Is it just me or have the models shifted WEST
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif


Models have definitely shifted West. Thus why on the previous page, the only path in my memory that resembles this storm where it's at now and where I think it could go is that of Donna from 1960.
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