TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

After 93L I feel if they don't find a west wind that they should be fair in discount the Advisories on this. Because it would not be a cyclone.

[bostonseminole]

You can see it on KW radar also.. does not look like much of a north movement

[Thunder44]

After 93L I feel if they don't find a west wind that they should be fair in discount the Advisories on this. Because it would not be a cyclone.

I doubt they will do that now. It's probably hasn't a closed circulation for while now. Since it may be offshore now, they will probably give it a chance to close off before discontinuing advisories.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think the west winds would still be over Cuba by looking at satellite. We will see over the next few hours.

[TampaFl]

2:00AM postion

[superfly]

Last data set from recon confirms LLC still intact, found winds from pretty much all directions.

[Bgator]

Navy NRL site has the storm at 1006mb 40kts for the first time in forever, i wonder why they decided to push it to 40kts on website..(40kts is 45mph)...

[Thunder44]

Last data set from recon confirms LLC still intact, found winds from pretty much all directions.

I don't think they completely closed it off, at least from the last set I can see (skipped a set). Winds under 5kts are really considered "light and varibable".

[TampaFl]

Latest Camaguey, Cuba radar loop

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif

[TampaFl]

Nassua, Bahamas radar loop: Caution loads slowly


http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/radar/local/loop/

[Normandy]

^ Excellent Links.

I now think the center is def still inland

[deltadog03]

i still don't see any LLC....Cuz if there was one and it was over water they would have sent out the VDM...Either the center is still over land or ernie is dead.

[Normandy]

^ It def still has rotation because the banding that TampaFL radar showed is nice

[chrisnnavarre]

Overland Cuba and moving WNW. At least that's what I see.

[Thunder44]

The center has moved offshore but it's not closed. That's why there is no VDM yet. What may be happening is that LLC may be trying to reform just offshore.

[Thunder44]

515
WHXX01 KWBC 290707
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060829 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060829 0600 060829 1800 060830 0600 060830 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 78.4W 22.9N 80.1W 23.9N 81.6W 25.1N 82.8W
BAMM 22.2N 78.4W 23.2N 80.1W 24.3N 81.4W 25.6N 82.3W
A98E 22.2N 78.4W 23.7N 80.3W 25.2N 81.8W 27.2N 82.6W
LBAR 22.2N 78.4W 23.4N 80.0W 24.7N 81.5W 26.2N 82.4W
SHIP 40KTS 46KTS 53KTS 62KTS
DSHP 40KTS 50KTS 49KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060831 0600 060901 0600 060902 0600 060903 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.8N 83.2W 31.7N 81.9W 37.1N 79.0W 43.3N 72.4W
BAMM 27.2N 82.2W 31.4N 79.1W 36.3N 75.9W 42.0N 70.8W
A98E 29.8N 82.1W 34.2N 80.3W 39.7N 76.8W 44.1N 70.2W
LBAR 27.7N 82.6W 30.9N 81.7W 35.4N 79.0W 42.2N 72.3W
SHIP 70KTS 80KTS 84KTS 77KTS
DSHP 38KTS 35KTS 28KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.2N LONCUR = 78.4W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 20.8N LONM12 = 76.5W DIRM12 = 309DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 19.1N LONM24 = 75.1W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[deltadog03]

Well, I think I found the LLC....



IF you can go to the main nhc and loop the Short wave IR channel2 loop..

[bostonseminole]

looks like shifts further west

[SouthFLTropics]

5AM update is out at Wunderground. Winds are now 45MPH, motion NW @ 13 mph. Looks like he is making his move off of the coast!

[bostonseminole]

Does not look NW to me..