TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[THead]

I think the NHC has Ernie's track nailed down now. Looking at the first vis loop of the day, it just looks like they have it right. I expect to see more North in Ernie very soon. Honestly, if they DON'T have it right at this point........what IS the point?!




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Stormavoider]

From this interrupted loop, It looks to be going due west to the extent that it may go back over land.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-79&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=ir.pal

[Scorpion]

Yeah, I don't see how it could gain 2 mb while over water.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

tgenius,

not quite. he won't hook northeast, if it doesn't come down, but he should still follow the periphery of the ridge, so he should eventually turn NW to N.

[caneseddy]

Actually the pressure stayed the same from 5am to 8:00 am at 1007 MB if you look a the advisories

[CocoCreek]

[quote="THead"]I think the NHC has Ernie's track nailed down now. Looking at the first vis loop of the day, it just looks like they have it right. I expect to see more North in Ernie very soon. Honestly, if they DON'T have it right at this point........what IS the point?!


LOL...I agree...no doubt...time to get the forecast right!

[jpigott]

folks, in the next goes IR image you are going to see a nice convective blowup on the NE side of the "blob". Look at the RAMSDIS loop (which updates more frequently) and you will see a big blow up of thunderstorms on the NE side of the blob

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

[Normandy]

One thing that worries me about Ernesto is his size....hes small and small systems can ramp up FAST....see what Ernesto did south of Haiti.

[gtalum]

I bet all meteorologists will be happy to be rid of Ernie. What a stressful storm to forcast!

[chrisnnavarre]

Weak means West.... maybe it won't turn north at all and miss the ridge all together...Ernesto say hello to the Gulf of Mexico....

[TampaFl]

8:00AM postion.

[tracyswfla]

One thing that worries me about Ernesto is his size....hes small and small systems can ramp up FAST....see what Ernesto did south of Haiti.

Do you think that he would have ramped up by now?

[robbielyn]

Weak means West.... maybe it won't turn north at all and miss the ridge all together...Ernesto say hello to the Gulf of Mexico....

Not all there is to it, may hit sw fl but that trough will hook it into s fl won't make it that far northwest. If that trough weren't that close than yes you would be right. Anyways that's how my local met explained it.

[tampastorm]

folks, in the next goes IR image you are going to see a nice convective blowup on the NE side of the "blob". Look at the RAMSDIS loop (which updates more frequently) and you will see a big blow up of thunderstorms on the NE side of the blob

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

Sure does everyone saying Ernie not looking to impressive this morning, take a look now looking pretty good to me anyway.

[Deathray]

Do you think that he would have ramped up by now?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it takes quite some time for the effects to be seen. Usually a few hours later, at least that's how I recall it, and explains why Ernesto was strengthening as it was first beginning to go into Cuba, way back when.

That's why it's also dangerous that once this hits Florida, it may still be increasing in intensity

[Jevo]

Ok you all have my head spinning..... Im calling my congressman this morning and telling him that they need to fire the whole team down there if apparently what Im hearing is that 4 Phds and probably combined 400 years of forecasting does not know the difference between NW and WNW.



Seriously, Im seeing great things this morning... 1. Im not going to lose my power for two weeks. 2. I dont have to live off of a hibachi grill. and 3. No 5 hours in line for gas.

Meteorologically speaking it looks as if Ernie didnt enjoy his visit in Cuba, and if he is going to get his act together its going to have to happen pretty quick given his speed of "near 14" This is good news for anyone in the way wether NW, WNW, or ENE

[Normandy]

Look at the trop Forecast points, Ernesto is well south of is next one and he is NOT moving N.

[N2FSU]

Here's a good water vapor loop of the US/Gulf/Atlantic.
Sure looks like the high pressure to the north is holding steady:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=7

[linkerweather]

One thing that worries me about Ernesto is his size....hes small and small systems can ramp up FAST....see what Ernesto did south of Haiti.

Do you think that he would have ramped up by now?

Still a bit too close to Cuba for RI

[rnbaida]

if it misses the ridge we could have a gulf storm... does anyone think that it could happen?