TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
THead
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 790
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:09 pm
Location: Lauderhill, Fla./Jefferson, Ga.

#121 Postby THead » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:37 am

I think the NHC has Ernie's track nailed down now. Looking at the first vis loop of the day, it just looks like they have it right. I expect to see more North in Ernie very soon. Honestly, if they DON'T have it right at this point........what IS the point?!
:wink:



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
0 likes   

Stormavoider
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
Location: Spring Hill Fl.

#122 Postby Stormavoider » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:38 am

0 likes   

Scorpion

#123 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:38 am

Yeah, I don't see how it could gain 2 mb while over water.
0 likes   

User avatar
TreasureIslandFLGal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1581
Age: 57
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 6:16 pm
Location: Clearwater, Florida ~3 miles from the coast now. We finally moved safely off the barrier island!

#124 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:39 am

tgenius,

not quite. he won't hook northeast, if it doesn't come down, but he should still follow the periphery of the ridge, so he should eventually turn NW to N.
0 likes   

caneseddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1176
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:31 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

#125 Postby caneseddy » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:39 am

Actually the pressure stayed the same from 5am to 8:00 am at 1007 MB if you look a the advisories :D
0 likes   

CocoCreek
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 52
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:26 pm
Location: Coconut Creek, FL

#126 Postby CocoCreek » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:40 am

[quote="THead"]I think the NHC has Ernie's track nailed down now. Looking at the first vis loop of the day, it just looks like they have it right. I expect to see more North in Ernie very soon. Honestly, if they DON'T have it right at this point........what IS the point?!
:wink:

LOL...I agree...no doubt...time to get the forecast right!
0 likes   

jpigott
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 692
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:31 pm
Location: North Palm Beach, Florida

#127 Postby jpigott » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:40 am

folks, in the next goes IR image you are going to see a nice convective blowup on the NE side of the "blob". Look at the RAMSDIS loop (which updates more frequently) and you will see a big blow up of thunderstorms on the NE side of the blob

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#128 Postby Normandy » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:40 am

One thing that worries me about Ernesto is his size....hes small and small systems can ramp up FAST....see what Ernesto did south of Haiti.
0 likes   

User avatar
gtalum
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4749
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2004 3:48 pm
Location: Bradenton, FL
Contact:

#129 Postby gtalum » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:41 am

I bet all meteorologists will be happy to be rid of Ernie. What a stressful storm to forcast! :)
0 likes   

chrisnnavarre
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 309
Joined: Fri Oct 03, 2003 5:52 pm
Contact:

#130 Postby chrisnnavarre » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:41 am

Weak means West.... maybe it won't turn north at all and miss the ridge all together...Ernesto say hello to the Gulf of Mexico....
0 likes   

User avatar
TampaFl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1904
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 11:23 am
Location: Tampa, FL

#131 Postby TampaFl » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:43 am

8:00AM postion.

Image
0 likes   

tracyswfla
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 792
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 1:19 pm
Location: Rochester, NY

#132 Postby tracyswfla » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:44 am

Normandy wrote:One thing that worries me about Ernesto is his size....hes small and small systems can ramp up FAST....see what Ernesto did south of Haiti.


Do you think that he would have ramped up by now?
0 likes   

User avatar
robbielyn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1299
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 9:45 am
Location: brooksville, fl

#133 Postby robbielyn » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:45 am

chrisnnavarre wrote:Weak means West.... maybe it won't turn north at all and miss the ridge all together...Ernesto say hello to the Gulf of Mexico....

Not all there is to it, may hit sw fl but that trough will hook it into s fl won't make it that far northwest. If that trough weren't that close than yes you would be right. Anyways that's how my local met explained it.
0 likes   
Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting. :D

tampastorm
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 434
Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:22 pm
Location: TAMPA

#134 Postby tampastorm » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:45 am

jpigott wrote:folks, in the next goes IR image you are going to see a nice convective blowup on the NE side of the "blob". Look at the RAMSDIS loop (which updates more frequently) and you will see a big blow up of thunderstorms on the NE side of the blob

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html


Sure does everyone saying Ernie not looking to impressive this morning, take a look now looking pretty good to me anyway.
0 likes   

Deathray
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:40 am

#135 Postby Deathray » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:46 am

tracyswfla wrote: Do you think that he would have ramped up by now?


Correct me if I'm wrong, but it takes quite some time for the effects to be seen. Usually a few hours later, at least that's how I recall it, and explains why Ernesto was strengthening as it was first beginning to go into Cuba, way back when.

That's why it's also dangerous that once this hits Florida, it may still be increasing in intensity
0 likes   

User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:

#136 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:46 am

Ok you all have my head spinning..... Im calling my congressman this morning and telling him that they need to fire the whole team down there if apparently what Im hearing is that 4 Phds and probably combined 400 years of forecasting does not know the difference between NW and WNW.

:roll:

Seriously, Im seeing great things this morning... 1. Im not going to lose my power for two weeks. 2. I dont have to live off of a hibachi grill. and 3. No 5 hours in line for gas.

Meteorologically speaking it looks as if Ernie didnt enjoy his visit in Cuba, and if he is going to get his act together its going to have to happen pretty quick given his speed of "near 14" This is good news for anyone in the way wether NW, WNW, or ENE
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#137 Postby Normandy » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:47 am

Look at the trop Forecast points, Ernesto is well south of is next one and he is NOT moving N.
0 likes   

User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1063
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

#138 Postby N2FSU » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:47 am

Here's a good water vapor loop of the US/Gulf/Atlantic.
Sure looks like the high pressure to the north is holding steady:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=7
0 likes   

User avatar
linkerweather
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 261
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:59 am
Location: tampa bay area

#139 Postby linkerweather » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:47 am

tracyswfla wrote:
Normandy wrote:One thing that worries me about Ernesto is his size....hes small and small systems can ramp up FAST....see what Ernesto did south of Haiti.


Do you think that he would have ramped up by now?


Still a bit too close to Cuba for RI
0 likes   

rnbaida

#140 Postby rnbaida » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:49 am

if it misses the ridge we could have a gulf storm... does anyone think that it could happen?
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Fancy1002, gib, jgh and 40 guests