TD Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #8

[Toadstool]

This is a nice relaxing rain event... should be relaxing to sleep to tonight provided the winds don't get up too high. Everyone around here seem to have taken the storm seriously so no flying debris as everything is secured down.

[tgenius]

And its a landfall without wind/consequence... lol

[dcuevas]

Stormavoider - I was looking at the animation from 8pm today. 24.8N 80.4W NW movement at 12mph - 1004 mb. Maybe something is wrong with my eyes . Let me find an updated one. I know I saw something

[skysummit]

Man, what winds you all are getting in the Miami metro...

E15 at MIA
E13 at Fort Lauderdale
NE 12 at Homestead
E15 at Opa Locka

How can you all manage that? Seriously, don't you normally get stronger winds after the seabreeze front passes through every afternoon?

Seriously.

LOL...I'm not even sure if a kite can stay up with those winds!

[LeeJet]

Where are the winds?

[Fusion13]

Here is a good radar of S. FL.

[Evil Jeremy]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes


look at that huge rainband off of the East Coast, its going to bring in aloooooooot of rain here!

[Dean4Storms]

It does appear that the main center has jogged toward the west very recently. Funny that the 18z GFDL shows just sort of a jog bringing Ernesto's LLC into Florida Bay before turning northward.

[tgenius]

Not to Miami it won't.. its too funny to see a storm making landfall in the keys having the worst weather in Broward, lol.

[wsoutherland]

So...even though there is a near consensus on an eventual turn eastward
as Ernesto works his way up Florida, could someone (maybe someone who
understands NHC reasoning more than I do) please explain to me why
Sarasota County, Manatee County and Tampa Bay is still only under a
TS Watch, even at the 8pm advisory?
--snip --

Well a TS watch is for TS force winds. Since they are not likely to occur, that's why. They aren't for heavy rain.

Duh...sorry...you'd think I could have thought of that myself. Nonetheless,
and this will be my last rant, I just can't imagine there is enough
certainty about the eastward track to not play it at least a *little* bit more
cautiously on the West Coast. Well...I guess another Wednesday at
work won't kill me! (Sob.) At least I can count on only a small fraction
of my students actually showing up, I suppose. I worry about them, too,
though -- they are largely newbie drivers after all, hardly ready for bad
conditions even at this level. Thanks for the answer.

[Stormavoider]

Stormavoider - I was looking at the animation from 8pm today. 24.8N 80.4W NW movement at 12mph - 1004 mb. Maybe something is wrong with my eyes . Let me find an updated one. I know I saw something

For a while there it looked like two centers. Then it opened up into one big one moving NW.
Here's an interesting IR view.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-81&info=ir&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&palette=spect.pal

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

that is a great radar and the two of us here looking at it, we both agree that the center appears to be making landfall just to the northeast of Marathon on the keys and moving in a WNW direction. If it keeps up that motion, it will be staying over the water for quite a while longer.

Maybe our 4 combined eyes are playing tricks on us, but that is our OPINION.

[Rainband]

I am seeing the same thing TIFLG

[seahawkjd]

I keep hearing Dr. lyons on TWC talking about the system basically becoming a hybrid before it hits SC/NC. He's the only one i hear saying this. Any perspective on this and what it would mean?

[Cuber]

look at that huge rainband off of the East Coast, its going to bring in aloooooooot of rain here!

Not so sure Jeremy ... looks like it may dry up before it gets up here to West Palm Beach

[dcuevas]

Thanks Stormavoider!

[Evil Jeremy]

look at that huge rainband off of the East Coast, its going to bring in aloooooooot of rain here!

Not so sure Jeremy ... looks like it may dry up before it gets up here to West Palm Beach

Eastern Broward County will still get it though!

[dcuevas]

Okay, I'm in line seeing the same thing. E has been so unpredicatable. If he stays in the warm waters he may be able to strengthen. I think. I think the waters are in the high 80's where he is vacationing.

[HURAKAN]

Hey, there's is a big thunderstorm complex affecting South Florida and the northern Bahamas. Oh, sorry, is Ernesto!!!

From a general image of thr Atlantic Ernesto seems to be almost nothing. The thunderstorm between Panama and Colombia and the wave in the far Atlantic looks more impressive. But Ernesto has something the other lack, a center of circulation!!!

[Evil Jeremy]

161
URNT12 KNHC 300154
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 30/01:24:20Z
B. 24 deg 52 min N
080 deg 28 min W
C. 850 mb 1455 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 117 deg 040 kt
G. 040 deg 098 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 17 C/ 1525 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 8
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF300 1805A ERNESTO OB 10
MAX FL WIND 46 KT SE QUAD 23:40:50 Z
FL CTR ELONGATED NE TO SW
;