TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think there is a real possibility of a recurve and no second landfall. That trough may or may not exert enough pull on the system. The strenght/height of the storm will play big late tonight.

[skysummit]

I'm not quite sure it is a depression yet, Luis why are you so confident and why was this thread's title changed without the NHCs official statement?

The 12z models were initialized as Tropical Depression Ernesto. Plus, pretty much all the metars I'm seeing are winds in the mid to low 20's and lower.

CBS just called it a "spiral thunderstorm" on the radio.

[HurricaneJim]

Well, looks like the end of it. Farmers need the rain up here, so that's at least a good thing.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think we are seeing the overall circulation getting pulled by the "turn" aroungd the ridge and steering flow. The "old Center" looks pretty broken down, if the overll circ stays together, I 'd would not be surprised to see a new one form.

[UpTheCreek]

It's all over???

[westmoon]

Florida might just finish what Cuba Started.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Oh, I did not say that, it's just like a car ronding a sharp turn, the forces exerted are pulling the structure. There's too much convection and overall circ. to call it dead now.

[Sanibel]

Ernesto doesn't take land well.

Rain picking up here.

[HurricaneJim]

He may suprise the viewing audience yet. Guess we'll leave the vehicles packed for the time being.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

[westmoon]

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...26.0 N...81.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

As of 8AM was still moving NNW, I think the only Chance for Ernesto to make it would be for him to duck into the GOM, I can't see him traveling for another 12+ hours up the state.

81.5W would put him in the GOM

[bjackrian]

Well, if nothing else, western Florida's getting quite the rain event. The one very intense cell to the west of the center has put down 3-5" of rain in the last hour to the northeast of Everglades City according to radar estimates. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=amx&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=no

Can anyone in the area verify what's happening on the ground?

[nequad]

There's no way Ernesto is finished. He will at the very least be a moderate to strong TS when he makes landfall in the vicinity of Myrtle Beach/Cape Fear early Friday morning.

All available global model guidance indicates a strengthening cyclone as it tracks across the open waters. There will also be some baroclinic interaction over the mid-atlantic states by Friday with ernesto to the south and large high pressure to the NE.

[jpigott]

Is there going to be any significant rainfall for Mia-Ft Laud-WPB corridor? There is still a strong band of rain to our south just off shore, but will be get any of it, or is it just going to be a breezy overcast day

[skysummit]

I think it's just about over for poor ole' Ernie. He gave it his best! I'm thankful it wasn't more for my friends in Florida.

[Ground_Zero_92]

Some of the new models are shifting back west towards Charleston....

There's a thread about it in the analysis section...


I also think it's funny how we've lost people today. People that are actual weather enthusiasts, don't tend to care where it makes landfall or goes afterwards, they keep watching..

All these..."florida is the only state" people annoy the crap out of me..

I am sorry if this has already been responded to, but I felt the need to speak my mind on this.

It saddens me to see comments like this. After dealing with long gas lines, doing last minute supply shopping, making sure we had everything for the kids, and making sure my elderly parents were all prepared, I finally got some rest overnight and this morning.

Because myself, or others like me don't post a lot, or may appear to have become "lost", does not mean that we only care about tropical systems approaching or affecting only our state. It could just be that the last couple of days have been physically and mentally exhausting and we all are getting well needed rest and returning to our lives that were interrupted. Either way, it does not mean that we stop caring about where a system is heading just because the threat to us is greatly reduced or over.

[drezee]

From a pure sat prespective, Ernesto hasn't looked this good in days! winds still gusting to 50mph+ on the coast (buoys).


30/13 FWYF1 25.7 -79.8 27.6 190 38 G 44 190 46 1007.6 1.3 29.4 FWYF1

sustained: 44 mph
30 sec gust: 51 mph
peak gust: 53mph

last hour

yes, I know the elevation


4 buoys still gusting at or over TS force for 14Z obs.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Here''s one just for fun>>

This will exit the FL coast between WPB and FT Pierce.

[skysummit]

From a pure sat prespective, Ernesto hasn't looked this good in days! winds still gusting to 50mph+ on the coast (buoys).


30/13 FWYF1 25.7 -79.8 27.6 190 38 G 44 190 46 1007.6 1.3 29.4 FWYF1

sustained: 44 mph
30 sec gust: 51 mph
peak gust: 53mph

last hour

yes, I know the elevation


4 buoys still gusting at or over TS force for 14Z obs.

Are you sure that's not just a bunch of sea gulls flapping around that buoy?

[bjackrian]

From a pure sat prespective, Ernesto hasn't looked this good in days! winds still gusting to 50mph+ on the coast (buoys).


30/13 FWYF1 25.7 -79.8 27.6 190 38 G 44 190 46 1007.6 1.3 29.4 FWYF1

sustained: 44 mph
30 sec gust: 51 mph
peak gust: 53mph
4 buoys still gusting at or over TS force for 14Z obs.

Impressive winds, but unimpressive pressure (1007.6 if I'm reading that correctly?). What's driving 40+ mph winds without a huge pressure gradient? Are we talking thunderstorm downbursts rather than true TC winds?

[cinlfla]

Does anyone have an idea where Ernesto is going to exit? or should I say what's left of him. Glad to have the rain our yard is terribly dry. I hope the folks in the Carolinas only get rain like I'm getting here. I was in the Carolinas in June Both states are just beautiful.