TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9
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- BensonTCwatcher
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- skysummit
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gatorcane wrote:I'm not quite sure it is a depression yet, Luis why are you so confident and why was this thread's title changed without the NHCs official statement?
The 12z models were initialized as Tropical Depression Ernesto. Plus, pretty much all the metars I'm seeing are winds in the mid to low 20's and lower.
CBS just called it a "spiral thunderstorm" on the radio.

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- HurricaneJim
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Well, looks like the end of it. Farmers need the rain up here, so that's at least a good thing.
Jim
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Jim
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- BensonTCwatcher
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- UpTheCreek
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- BensonTCwatcher
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He may suprise the viewing audience yet. Guess we'll leave the vehicles packed for the time being.
Jim
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NAVY WAM LINK
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Jim
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NAVY WAM LINK
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- westmoon
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REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...26.0 N...81.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
As of 8AM was still moving NNW, I think the only Chance for Ernesto to make it would be for him to duck into the GOM, I can't see him traveling for another 12+ hours up the state.
81.5W would put him in the GOM
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
As of 8AM was still moving NNW, I think the only Chance for Ernesto to make it would be for him to duck into the GOM, I can't see him traveling for another 12+ hours up the state.
81.5W would put him in the GOM
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Well, if nothing else, western Florida's getting quite the rain event. The one very intense cell to the west of the center has put down 3-5" of rain in the last hour to the northeast of Everglades City according to radar estimates. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=amx&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=no
Can anyone in the area verify what's happening on the ground?
Can anyone in the area verify what's happening on the ground?
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There's no way Ernesto is finished. He will at the very least be a moderate to strong TS when he makes landfall in the vicinity of Myrtle Beach/Cape Fear early Friday morning.
All available global model guidance indicates a strengthening cyclone as it tracks across the open waters. There will also be some baroclinic interaction over the mid-atlantic states by Friday with ernesto to the south and large high pressure to the NE.
All available global model guidance indicates a strengthening cyclone as it tracks across the open waters. There will also be some baroclinic interaction over the mid-atlantic states by Friday with ernesto to the south and large high pressure to the NE.
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- Ground_Zero_92
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SCMedic wrote:Some of the new models are shifting back west towards Charleston....
There's a thread about it in the analysis section...
I also think it's funny how we've lost people today. People that are actual weather enthusiasts, don't tend to care where it makes landfall or goes afterwards, they keep watching..
All these..."florida is the only state" people annoy the crap out of me..
I am sorry if this has already been responded to, but I felt the need to speak my mind on this.
It saddens me to see comments like this. After dealing with long gas lines, doing last minute supply shopping, making sure we had everything for the kids, and making sure my elderly parents were all prepared, I finally got some rest overnight and this morning.
Because myself, or others like me don't post a lot, or may appear to have become "lost", does not mean that we only care about tropical systems approaching or affecting only our state. It could just be that the last couple of days have been physically and mentally exhausting and we all are getting well needed rest and returning to our lives that were interrupted. Either way, it does not mean that we stop caring about where a system is heading just because the threat to us is greatly reduced or over.
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From a pure sat prespective, Ernesto hasn't looked this good in days! winds still gusting to 50mph+ on the coast (buoys).
30/13 FWYF1 25.7 -79.8 27.6 190 38 G 44 190 46 1007.6 1.3 29.4 FWYF1
sustained: 44 mph
30 sec gust: 51 mph
peak gust: 53mph
last hour
yes, I know the elevation
4 buoys still gusting at or over TS force for 14Z obs.
30/13 FWYF1 25.7 -79.8 27.6 190 38 G 44 190 46 1007.6 1.3 29.4 FWYF1
sustained: 44 mph
30 sec gust: 51 mph
peak gust: 53mph
last hour
yes, I know the elevation
4 buoys still gusting at or over TS force for 14Z obs.
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- BensonTCwatcher
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- skysummit
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drezee wrote:From a pure sat prespective, Ernesto hasn't looked this good in days! winds still gusting to 50mph+ on the coast (buoys).
30/13 FWYF1 25.7 -79.8 27.6 190 38 G 44 190 46 1007.6 1.3 29.4 FWYF1
sustained: 44 mph
30 sec gust: 51 mph
peak gust: 53mph
last hour
yes, I know the elevation
4 buoys still gusting at or over TS force for 14Z obs.
Are you sure that's not just a bunch of sea gulls flapping around that buoy?
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drezee wrote:From a pure sat prespective, Ernesto hasn't looked this good in days! winds still gusting to 50mph+ on the coast (buoys).
30/13 FWYF1 25.7 -79.8 27.6 190 38 G 44 190 46 1007.6 1.3 29.4 FWYF1
sustained: 44 mph
30 sec gust: 51 mph
peak gust: 53mph
4 buoys still gusting at or over TS force for 14Z obs.
Impressive winds, but unimpressive pressure (1007.6 if I'm reading that correctly?). What's driving 40+ mph winds without a huge pressure gradient? Are we talking thunderstorm downbursts rather than true TC winds?
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