TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

[AJC3]

AJC,

Why is it that hurricanes cannot strengthen inland, while thunderstorms can, as can cold fronts?

For the most part, they cannot for the reasons listed above.

However, when overall environmental conditons are very conducive for strenghtening, (light wind shear, a very moist environment) and a system is over pretty flat terrain, there seems to be occasions such as this, as well as another system over the gulf states (Allison or Danny, I forget) where a system can improve satellite presentation and vort structure, and actually strengthen a wee bit wind and SLP-wise. Also, frictional convergence is commonly cited as a cause of the vort structure "tightening up".

[HurricaneHunter914]

Can a Pro-Met tell us why Ernesto decreased in pressurre while over land? it's kinda bugging some people.

[AJC3]

The Buoy east of Cocoa Bch. getting closr to TS strength.......Note the Water Temp. however.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009

41009 lies just barely to the west of the west wall of the gulf stream however, and is at the eastern edge of an area which has undergone upwelling for the past several weeks.

https://www.navo.navy.mil/cgi-bin/graph ... 8/0-0-10/7

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Ernie is still a TD per 11 PM Advisory.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Wow, one would think with a TC in low shear 24 hrs from a landfall and about to go over the Gulf stream ( possibly at or near a diurnal max) this thread would be jumping. Hmmm.

[MBismyPlayground]

Wow, one would think with a TC in low shear 24 hrs from a landfall and about to go over the Gulf stream ( possibly at or near a diurnal max) this thread would be jumping. Hmmm.

I think they are all worn out by this crazy storm....Get a nights sleep and then resume. I know that the storm is forecasted to regain TS status and funny, Cantore and Morrow are both in town here, and just said they did not notice anyone here hoarding gas, ect... Just going about their merry way. I have a feeling this town is going to explode with activity.
Many people here are NOT prepared and have not taken this seriously, including the local powers that be.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yeah ..it's ho hum more or less up here. If we get all the rain we could get it sure won't take much wind to topple a bunch of trees.

[jasons2k]

looking at the water vapor it looks like there may be a chance for E. to move more East than the projected landfall. But, still within the cone of error. As always if your in the cone you need to pay attention.

I agree - on the radar loops it looks like it is shifting more to the E in the last ~hour.

[mtm4319]

Operationally, this was a 75mph hurricane at 1002mb and a 35mph depression at 1000mb.

[MBismyPlayground]

Well, I will sit back and just watch them jump thru hoops tomorrow, as I have prepared and made sure that all my neighbors, who are college students, did too.
They probably think I am crazy as they are listening to the local "news" ect....blowing it off. I mean at the very least be prepared for a power outage.
So they are now listening to the crazy lady, me, and all intend to come here with me. LOL

[wxman57]

Operationally, this was a 75mph hurricane at 1002mb and a 35mph depression at 1000mb.

I really think the NHC jumped the gun in calling Ernesto a hurricane that morning based on a spot wind in a squall. And it certainly wasn't a TS while near Cuba, as it may not have even had a well-defined LLC. Interesting that they downgraded it this morning while there were reports of 38kt winds along the coast. Never can figure them out. Perhaps they'll downgrade Ernesto post-season.

Ernesto has never looked better than it does tonight. Convection starting to fire just south of the center. I think it'll make a good run at hurricane strength prior to reaching the Carolinas but it may fall just a little short. Wouldn't rule it out, though. Should be significantly more of a wind issue there than over Florida.

[tallywx]

No shear, good outflow induced by adjacent trough, bath temperature water, small circulation that can spin up quickly, convectively active, surrounded by moist air on all sides.

All it takes is one good burst of convection over the LLC to make this an interesting ballgame.

BTW, if the peninsula of Florida didn't exist and that were open ocean, I'm pretty sure we'd be looking at a major hurricane right now considering the absolutely awesome atmospheric conditions it's had to work with over the past 24-30 hours or so.

[Stormcenter]

I tell you what I would not be surprised if Ernesto surprises everyone before landfall and strengthens more than predicted. He looks like he's is getting his act together quickly.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[wxman57]

I have no doubt that Ernesto will be a 45 mph TS by sunrise, and probably a 55-60 mph TS at landfall in SC or NC. Could develop faster, though.

[tgenius]

I've heard that one before about Ernie StormCenter

[Wx_Warrior]

And if a frog had wings

[brunota2003]

remember this, I promise to you guys, whatever happens tonight, when I wake up tomorrow I will not be surprised...now going to bed...night Never say NEVER

[Grease Monkey]

Ernesto has never looked better than it does tonight. Convection starting to fire just south of the center. I think it'll make a good run at hurricane strength prior to reaching the Carolinas but it may fall just a little short. Wouldn't rule it out, though. Should be significantly more of a wind issue there than over Florida.

I agree Ern is starting to take shape in the last couple frames. If it persists than I definitely feel that he would have a good shot at a cane.

[MBismyPlayground]

Well listening to the local forecast just now, the Myrtle Beach and Horry County powers that be have decided there would be NO evacuation orders, NO opening of shelters ect..... if they wait til tomorrow, and this thing really ramps up, and this turns into a border line TS/Cane, then they will have a problem...Tourists are still coming into town for their holiday vacation. Is it just me, or has someone dropped the ball on this one?

[wxman57]

Well listening to the local forecast just now, the Myrtle Beach and Horry County powers that be have decided there would be NO evacuation orders, NO opening of shelters ect..... if they wait til tomorrow, and this thing really ramps up, and this turns into a border line TS/Cane, then they will have a problem...Tourists are still coming into town for their holiday vacation. Is it just me, or has someone dropped the ball on this one?

All hurricanes are not equal. If Ernesto should become a hurricane before landfall, then those hurricane force winds would probably be over only a very tiny area. Coastal sections of SC/NC would likely see 40-50 mph for the most part. Maybe a spot wind to 55-65 mph. Surge would be lower than for a typical Cat 1 hurricane hitting in that area. SLOSH says about 7-8 feet for an average Cat 1 hitting there, so I'd expect a Cat 1 with a small area of hurricane-force wind to produce a surge of perhaps 3-5 ft. Evacuation, at this point, may do more harm than good as most areas are probably higher than that.

If you're live in an area that's below 5 ft above MSL, then you need to pay attention to this storm. You may have to leave on short notice. Landfall will be near sunset tomorrow. More likely, though, you'll see a 2-3 ft surge with a moderate TS.

I was just thinking -- this is kind of like the movie Jaws.

"Shark? There are no sharks in this water! Besides, it's the holiday weekend. "