MBismyPlayground wrote:Well listening to the local forecast just now, the Myrtle Beach and Horry County powers that be have decided there would be NO evacuation orders, NO opening of shelters ect..... if they wait til tomorrow, and this thing really ramps up, and this turns into a border line TS/Cane, then they will have a problem...Tourists are still coming into town for their holiday vacation. Is it just me, or has someone dropped the ball on this one?

All hurricanes are not equal. If Ernesto should become a hurricane before landfall, then those hurricane force winds would probably be over only a very tiny area. Coastal sections of SC/NC would likely see 40-50 mph for the most part. Maybe a spot wind to 55-65 mph. Surge would be lower than for a typical Cat 1 hurricane hitting in that area. SLOSH says about 7-8 feet for an average Cat 1 hitting there, so I'd expect a Cat 1 with a small area of hurricane-force wind to produce a surge of perhaps 3-5 ft. Evacuation, at this point, may do more harm than good as most areas are probably higher than that.
If you're live in an area that's below 5 ft above MSL, then you need to pay attention to this storm. You may have to leave on short notice. Landfall will be near sunset tomorrow. More likely, though, you'll see a 2-3 ft surge with a moderate TS.
I was just thinking -- this is kind of like the movie Jaws.
"Shark? There are no sharks in this water! Besides, it's the holiday weekend. "