TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

[shaggy]

if it doesnt bump any to the east then it may delay that for an hour but i think if its gaining power befoe landfall that will carry over to land as well and it may be one of those storms that has the winds chasing the pressure drops even after it makes landfall

this is my new favorite website realtime buoy data..to see the obs just put the cursor on the buoy.

http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/buoy/SEbuoy.php

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Charleston radar shows an eyewall forming, and an eye just appeared on satellite near 31.4N/79.2W. I think we have a hurricane out there. Picture shortly...

That coming from you is not good.
Looks like my last post might have been off a bit. Haha.

[Robert]

THIS STORM WAS BOTCHED BY THE NHC FROM START TO FINISH.

Let's call a spade a spade here and admit it.

Lets take a deep breath and wait about 10-12 hours before we bash anyone, at least for the SC/NC forcast. We (Carteret County) have been under a tropical storm watch/ warning for several days now. Every NHC forcast I have read has said that there is a possibility of a strong tropical storm coming to the SC/NC boarder around Thursday or Friday.

I am not a forcaster or pro met, but believe that if people have turned on the TV or radio in the past few days, they will know that something is going on. Maybe a hurricane warning should have been issued, but I am holding any judgement until after landfall.

[Bane]

Ships model brings it to 87 mph. it could be on target.

[Droop12]

Anybody feel like saving a radar loop at landfall tonight for me? I wont be home until 1:30am, so I'll most likely miss the landfall by a couple hours. I always do...

[wxman57]

Here's a new sat pic.

Link to pic without the red circle:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto69.jpg

[westmoon]

wxman57,

Do you have the link for the radar in Charleston?

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Oh, I see.

Where do you think the center will cross the shore at?

[Bane]

brunswick county in north carolina no wis under a tornado warning.

[Sanibel]

994!

Finally going for hurricane.


It holds true - Beware of storms that burst while over land.

Nice round eyewall forming on radar.

[WmE]

Here's a new sat pic.

Link to pic without the red circle:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto69.jpg

Yep, it's clearly visible. Thanks for the link!

[shawn67]

wxman57,

Do you have the link for the radar in Charleston?

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[terstorm1012]

looks a lot like bertha did in 1996, although Bertha was a considerably stronger storm at this point.

[Droop12]

Hell, a steady pressure drop like he's having and I wouldnt rule out a strengthening Cat1-2 at landfall.

[westmoon]

Think I'm going to go eat my crow now! I said yesterday i didn't expect Ernesto to make it out of Florida in one piece and if he did i didn't expect he would ever be able to come back. Heating up my crow lunch now

[Bane]

he's definitely becoming better organized. i'm surprised they didn't issue hurricane warnings instead of the watch.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Need any condiments with that, westmoon?

Jk.. Haha..

[windnrain]

It won't make a category 2, 10 hours for a windspeed raise like that would be insane, Droop....

but with things have been going, I wouldn't count it out completely, I guess.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Any chance of an advisory before the 2 PM one?

I have Biology next so I won't be able to get back on until I get home.

[UpTheCreek]

Need any condiments with that, westmoon?

Jk.. Haha..

Send some to the NHC while you're at it! ( just kidding.... )