TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

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shaggy
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#101 Postby shaggy » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:06 am

if it doesnt bump any to the east then it may delay that for an hour but i think if its gaining power befoe landfall that will carry over to land as well and it may be one of those storms that has the winds chasing the pressure drops even after it makes landfall

this is my new favorite website realtime buoy data..to see the obs just put the cursor on the buoy.

http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/buoy/SEbuoy.php
Last edited by shaggy on Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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all_we_know_is_FALLING
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#102 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:06 am

wxman57 wrote:Charleston radar shows an eyewall forming, and an eye just appeared on satellite near 31.4N/79.2W. I think we have a hurricane out there. Picture shortly...


:eek: That coming from you is not good.
Looks like my last post might have been off a bit. Haha.
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Robert
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#103 Postby Robert » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:07 am

THIS STORM WAS BOTCHED BY THE NHC FROM START TO FINISH.

Let's call a spade a spade here and admit it.

Lets take a deep breath and wait about 10-12 hours before we bash anyone, at least for the SC/NC forcast. We (Carteret County) have been under a tropical storm watch/ warning for several days now. Every NHC forcast I have read has said that there is a possibility of a strong tropical storm coming to the SC/NC boarder around Thursday or Friday.

I am not a forcaster or pro met, but believe that if people have turned on the TV or radio in the past few days, they will know that something is going on. Maybe a hurricane warning should have been issued, but I am holding any judgement until after landfall.
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Bane
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#104 Postby Bane » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:08 am

Ships model brings it to 87 mph. it could be on target.
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#105 Postby Droop12 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:09 am

Anybody feel like saving a radar loop at landfall tonight for me? I wont be home until 1:30am, so I'll most likely miss the landfall by a couple hours. I always do... :lol:
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#106 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:10 am

Here's a new sat pic.

Link to pic without the red circle:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto69.jpg

Image
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#107 Postby westmoon » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:10 am

wxman57,

Do you have the link for the radar in Charleston?
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#108 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:11 am

Oh, I see.

Where do you think the center will cross the shore at?
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Bane
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#109 Postby Bane » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:11 am

brunswick county in north carolina no wis under a tornado warning.
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#110 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:11 am

994!

Finally going for hurricane.


It holds true - Beware of storms that burst while over land.

Nice round eyewall forming on radar.
Last edited by Sanibel on Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#111 Postby WmE » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:11 am

wxman57 wrote:Here's a new sat pic.

Link to pic without the red circle:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto69.jpg


Yep, it's clearly visible. Thanks for the link!
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#112 Postby shawn67 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:12 am

westmoon wrote:wxman57,

Do you have the link for the radar in Charleston?


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes
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#113 Postby terstorm1012 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:12 am

looks a lot like bertha did in 1996, although Bertha was a considerably stronger storm at this point.
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#114 Postby Droop12 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:13 am

Hell, a steady pressure drop like he's having and I wouldnt rule out a strengthening Cat1-2 at landfall.
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#115 Postby westmoon » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:14 am

Think I'm going to go eat my crow now! I said yesterday i didn't expect Ernesto to make it out of Florida in one piece and if he did i didn't expect he would ever be able to come back. Heating up my crow lunch now
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#116 Postby Bane » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:14 am

he's definitely becoming better organized. i'm surprised they didn't issue hurricane warnings instead of the watch.
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all_we_know_is_FALLING
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#117 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:15 am

Need any condiments with that, westmoon?

Jk.. Haha..
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#118 Postby windnrain » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:15 am

It won't make a category 2, 10 hours for a windspeed raise like that would be insane, Droop....

but with things have been going, I wouldn't count it out completely, I guess.
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all_we_know_is_FALLING
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#119 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:16 am

Any chance of an advisory before the 2 PM one?

I have Biology next so I won't be able to get back on until I get home.
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#120 Postby UpTheCreek » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:16 am

all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:Need any condiments with that, westmoon?

Jk.. Haha..


Send some to the NHC while you're at it! ( just kidding.... :lol: )
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