Models Showing System Off African Coast 96 Hours

[Meso]

The gfs at 264 hours... Showing a pretty deep system being pulled north through a weakness in the ridge http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264s.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

CMC 12Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

GFS 12Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

UKMET 12Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr

Still waiting on the Nogaps and MM5FSU.

[Noah]

GFS looks like it's developing 2 systems in the Eastern Atlantic.

Can you give me some sort of pic pointing to what you guys/gals are talking about?

[Derek Ortt]

watch the system near 20W. It may be the one that goes. The one the models are developing may be like Debby was to Ernesto and block the SAL

[Noah]

watch the system near 20W. It may be the one that goes. The one the models are developing may be like Debby was to Ernesto and block the SAL

Ikes... my terms maybe? I dont understand what you mean.. sorry

[WmE]

SAL= Saharan Air Layer = dry air from the sahara

The system in front could block the dry air to provide the other system a moist environment.

[Meso]

Actually the one at the back will block the wave ahead of it I think,since SAL attacks from the back of waves the wave behind will draw it in and give the wave ahead some leaverage due to less harsh conditions of SAL ambushing it from the back.. I may be wrong,but that's what I understand

[WmE]

No you're right!! sorry!

[SouthFloridawx]

Getting active over Africa just in time for Peak Season.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
I really like this site that has all of the views of the Atlantic that you could want plus the floaters.

Also Probablilites are looking good for development.


Also cyclone formation is way up.


Windshear is also fairly low.

[Aquawind]

Starting to look like September. We will have some invests very soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_054m.gif

GFS 00Z still showing development off the coast of Africa.

We could be very busy in the next couple of weeks tracking some storms.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_078m.gif
GFS showing a 1004mb low pressure in the E. Atlantic. I think we'll be seeing some development in the next week.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078m.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

[Meso]

UKMET 06z model run 48 Hours
CMC 00z model run 54 Hours
MM5 00z model run 54 Hours
GFS 06z model run 54 Hours

East Atlantic Sat Image

Shear Forecast

SAL

[HenkL]

Forecast issued for the NAMMA project:

"NAMMA weather forecast Sept 2 2006
September 2nd, 2006

NAMMA forecast Sept 2

Today is a no-fly day. The convection embedded in the ITCZ is not expected to intensify until Sept 3. Heavy dust loading can be seen as far as 53W. The southern edge of the dust plume is south of CV near 15W. The dust plume we sampled yesterday is steadily moving west and reached 22W. A small-amplitude AEW is located southeast of the CV embedded in the ITCZ and moderate convection is occurring. Convection associated with the wave is near 14N17W. Due to dry and dusty air ahead, this convection is expected to weaken in the next 12 hours. Another strong convection behind the wave is located near 10N10W. Strong monsoon trough bringing moisture from the southwest may support and strengthen this convection for the next 24 hours. The wave amplitude will increase and gradually form a closed circulation by 06Z Sept 3 centered at 12N20W. Both GFS and UIUC-WRF shows the circulation is well organized and shows sign of intensification for the next 24 hours. By 12Z Sept 3, the center is at 14N22W by GFS and 18N18W by UIUC-WRF. The GFS is taking the wave to the northwest over the island through Monday. General model consensus (GFS, UIUC-WRF, ECMWF, and ARPEGE) is to develop the wave west of the island towards a tropical depression intensity through Sept 3 to 4. Tomorrow is a scheduled fly day."

Daily forecasts for the project can be found here.

[SouthFloridawx]

Intesting read there... good job.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

This wave behind 98L appears to have some cyclonic turning and the wave behind it doesn't look bad either.

[wxman57]

watch the system near 20W. It may be the one that goes. The one the models are developing may be like Debby was to Ernesto and block the SAL

I agree, it's near 23N now. I thought THAT was 99L, as it looks like the most impressive disturbance out there. Interesting, the Atlantic TWO just came out and there's no mention of the system in the eastern Atlantic.