TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

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HURAKAN
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#281 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:04 pm

Image

LOOKIN' GOOD!!!
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#282 Postby westmoon » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:05 pm

Atleast Low tide in the area should be around 8pm, thats better than him hitting at high tide. Maybe the storm surge won't be too bad.
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#283 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:05 pm

We might see some 80mph gusts out of this one from the looks of things.
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#284 Postby westmoon » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:07 pm

1500 SUN AUG 27 Category 1 Hurricane
Ernesto 17.6N 73.7W NW 9mph 997mb Had 75mph winds then
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#285 Postby Zardoz » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:09 pm

Nice view of Ernie in this loop:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/se6ir.html

Ernesto: The Little Storm That Could
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#286 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:09 pm

^

Maybe Ernesto's winds haven't had time to catch up with the pressure drop yet.
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#287 Postby bjackrian » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:11 pm

all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:^

Maybe Ernesto's winds haven't had time to catch up with the pressure drop yet.


We've now had four FL readings of 73 kt--1 from the NOAA plane and three from the AF plane in the last few minutes. Winds are starting to catch up.
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#288 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:11 pm

If not yet, then I would say it will catch up very soon.
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#289 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:13 pm

Dvorak intensity continues to fall.
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#290 Postby stormtruth » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:13 pm

Ernster is powering up for his final landfall.
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#291 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:15 pm

bjackrian wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:^

Maybe Ernesto's winds haven't had time to catch up with the pressure drop yet.


We've now had four FL readings of 73 kt--1 from the NOAA plane and three from the AF plane in the last few minutes. Winds are starting to catch up.


Yupp. They sure are.
What does that translate too at the surface?
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#292 Postby bjackrian » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:18 pm

all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:Yupp. They sure are.
What does that translate too at the surface?


73 kt * 0.8 = 58.4 kt * 1.15 = 67.1 mph
73 kt * 0.85 = 62.1 kt * 1.15 = 71.4 mph
73 kt * 0.9 = 65.7 kt * 1.15 = 75.6 mph

There's some debate on the recon discussion thread about how much to reduce by since there haven't been as dramatic drop offs of the windspeed from FL as are typically seen.
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#293 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:19 pm

bjackrian wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:Yupp. They sure are.
What does that translate too at the surface?


73 kt * 0.8 = 58.4 kt * 1.15 = 67.1 mph
73 kt * 0.85 = 62.1 kt * 1.15 = 71.4 mph
73 kt * 0.9 = 65.7 kt * 1.15 = 75.6 mph

There's some debate on the recon discussion threat about how much to reduce by since there haven't been as dramatic drop offs of the windspeed from FL.


I usually go conservative and reduce to 80%. I have not seen an upgrade from the NHC since those winds were reported.
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#294 Postby bjackrian » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:20 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
bjackrian wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:Yupp. They sure are.
What does that translate too at the surface?


73 kt * 0.8 = 58.4 kt * 1.15 = 67.1 mph
73 kt * 0.85 = 62.1 kt * 1.15 = 71.4 mph
73 kt * 0.9 = 65.7 kt * 1.15 = 75.6 mph

There's some debate on the recon discussion threat about how much to reduce by since there haven't been as dramatic drop offs of the windspeed from FL.


I usually go conservative and reduce to 80%. I have not seen an upgrade from the NHC since those winds were reported.


Yeah--my best guess is that E is just shy of being a hurricane. If I were the NHC (which I'm not, obviously), I would probably put max surface winds at 70 mph right now.
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#295 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:20 pm

Okay thanks.

That seems to average out to about 70 mph.
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#296 Postby Aquawind » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:21 pm

Wow the Recon obs have alot of wind in them. A much more serious threat than the Florida impact. Ernesto is a freak..stand back!
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#297 Postby marcane_1973 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:25 pm

The storm track will be shifting even more East. This is a wilmington maybe even Hatteras storm now. Looks like Hatteras will get the worst winds and storm surge. Myrtle Beach you are in the clear now. :D The last several frames shows Ernesto is moving more East.
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#298 Postby bjackrian » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:25 pm

marcane_1973 wrote:The storm track will be shifting even more East. This is a wilmington maybe even Hatteras storm now. Looks like Hatteras will get the worst winds and storm surge. Myrtle Beach you are in the clear now. :D The last several frames shows Ernesto is moving more East.


I definitely wouldn't say in the clear: http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=ltx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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#299 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:27 pm

marcane_1973 wrote:The storm track will be shifting even more East. This is a wilmington maybe even Hatteras storm now. Looks like Hatteras will get the worst winds and storm surge. Myrtle Beach you are in the clear now. :D The last several frames shows Ernesto is moving more East.


If that's true then it will have more time over water.
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#300 Postby windnrain » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:31 pm

What's going on with the visable now? It looks like the center might be firing off a bit of cloud activity to its north, is this a closing of the eyewall, or is this a weakening because it is expanding while the pressure is dropping, not giving much a boost in winds?
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