TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

[HURAKAN]

LOOKIN' GOOD!!!

[westmoon]

Atleast Low tide in the area should be around 8pm, thats better than him hitting at high tide. Maybe the storm surge won't be too bad.

[Dean4Storms]

We might see some 80mph gusts out of this one from the looks of things.

[westmoon]

1500 SUN AUG 27 Category 1 Hurricane
Ernesto 17.6N 73.7W NW 9mph 997mb Had 75mph winds then

[Zardoz]

Nice view of Ernie in this loop:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/se6ir.html

Ernesto: The Little Storm That Could

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

^

Maybe Ernesto's winds haven't had time to catch up with the pressure drop yet.

[bjackrian]

^

Maybe Ernesto's winds haven't had time to catch up with the pressure drop yet.

We've now had four FL readings of 73 kt--1 from the NOAA plane and three from the AF plane in the last few minutes. Winds are starting to catch up.

[Grease Monkey]

If not yet, then I would say it will catch up very soon.

[SouthFloridawx]

Dvorak intensity continues to fall.

[stormtruth]

Ernster is powering up for his final landfall.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

^

Maybe Ernesto's winds haven't had time to catch up with the pressure drop yet.

We've now had four FL readings of 73 kt--1 from the NOAA plane and three from the AF plane in the last few minutes. Winds are starting to catch up.

Yupp. They sure are.
What does that translate too at the surface?

[bjackrian]

Yupp. They sure are.
What does that translate too at the surface?

73 kt * 0.8 = 58.4 kt * 1.15 = 67.1 mph
73 kt * 0.85 = 62.1 kt * 1.15 = 71.4 mph
73 kt * 0.9 = 65.7 kt * 1.15 = 75.6 mph

There's some debate on the recon discussion thread about how much to reduce by since there haven't been as dramatic drop offs of the windspeed from FL as are typically seen.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yupp. They sure are.
What does that translate too at the surface?

73 kt * 0.8 = 58.4 kt * 1.15 = 67.1 mph
73 kt * 0.85 = 62.1 kt * 1.15 = 71.4 mph
73 kt * 0.9 = 65.7 kt * 1.15 = 75.6 mph

There's some debate on the recon discussion threat about how much to reduce by since there haven't been as dramatic drop offs of the windspeed from FL.

I usually go conservative and reduce to 80%. I have not seen an upgrade from the NHC since those winds were reported.

[bjackrian]

Yupp. They sure are.
What does that translate too at the surface?

73 kt * 0.8 = 58.4 kt * 1.15 = 67.1 mph
73 kt * 0.85 = 62.1 kt * 1.15 = 71.4 mph
73 kt * 0.9 = 65.7 kt * 1.15 = 75.6 mph

There's some debate on the recon discussion threat about how much to reduce by since there haven't been as dramatic drop offs of the windspeed from FL.

I usually go conservative and reduce to 80%. I have not seen an upgrade from the NHC since those winds were reported.

Yeah--my best guess is that E is just shy of being a hurricane. If I were the NHC (which I'm not, obviously), I would probably put max surface winds at 70 mph right now.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Okay thanks.

That seems to average out to about 70 mph.

[Aquawind]

Wow the Recon obs have alot of wind in them. A much more serious threat than the Florida impact. Ernesto is a freak..stand back!

[marcane_1973]

The storm track will be shifting even more East. This is a wilmington maybe even Hatteras storm now. Looks like Hatteras will get the worst winds and storm surge. Myrtle Beach you are in the clear now. The last several frames shows Ernesto is moving more East.

[bjackrian]

The storm track will be shifting even more East. This is a wilmington maybe even Hatteras storm now. Looks like Hatteras will get the worst winds and storm surge. Myrtle Beach you are in the clear now. The last several frames shows Ernesto is moving more East.

I definitely wouldn't say in the clear: http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=ltx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

The storm track will be shifting even more East. This is a wilmington maybe even Hatteras storm now. Looks like Hatteras will get the worst winds and storm surge. Myrtle Beach you are in the clear now. The last several frames shows Ernesto is moving more East.

If that's true then it will have more time over water.

[windnrain]

What's going on with the visable now? It looks like the center might be firing off a bit of cloud activity to its north, is this a closing of the eyewall, or is this a weakening because it is expanding while the pressure is dropping, not giving much a boost in winds?