Central Atlantic Wave,Midway Between Africa and L Antilles

#221 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:18 pm

This is the wave that the models are jumping in recent runs.

Derek Ortt · #222 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:19 pm

thats not the wave the models are jumping on

Theya re jumpin on the wave still over Africa primarily

#223 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:30 pm

Depends on which model you look at. The GFS closes it of around 40w but never amounts it to much more than that. The CMC develops into a TC and turns it NW. Don't know what the Euro, NOGAPS or others are doing with it.

jhamps10 · #224 Postby **jhamps10** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:34 pm

the wave continues to look better and better. at this rate we will have an invest in the next 24 hours, and maybe florence by sunday or monday.

ConvergenceZone · #225 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:36 pm

Hey Derek, do waves sometimes develop even though the models don't predict it will? I'm asking this because I've never studied the accuracy of the models regarding future storms. While I think it's obvious that sometimes the models often call for a wave to develop and it doesn't, does it work the other way around as well??
Anyone else can answer this too if you'd like

...

Even though the convection is blowing up, I'm not going to get caught in that trap again, lol...Everytime I see convection firing and open my big fat mouth, it poofs.......My lips are sealed....

#226 Postby **HenkL** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:37 pm

The ECMWF 12Z model has a low near 15N 38W on Sunday, going up to 25N 45W on Thursday. The GFS 12 Z model also shows a nice developing low near the same area, later on turning NW and riding a clockwise path, ending near Ireland as a very strong extratropical (950 hPa on September 15).

ConvergenceZone · #227 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:40 pm

jhamps10 wrote:the wave continues to look better and better. at this rate we will have an invest in the next 24 hours, and maybe florence by sunday or monday.

I'm still a bit confused, are you guys looking at the area with the spin that's just east of the top of the slands?, or is it the wave with the ball of convection that's more east of the bottom of the islands?

Still don't have my latitude and longitude down, sorry

#228 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:41 pm

ConvergenceZone,is the wave around 35w.

ConvergenceZone · #229 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:46 pm

Hey luis, where's a good source for latitude and longitude maps?? I can't tell by looking at the satellite pics what position 35w is at..., sorry....

ConvergenceZone · #230 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:49 pm

Hmm, that's interesting that the latest TWO didn't say, "development IF ANY should be slow to occur"...I guess they are feeling more bullish on this, but we'll see

#231 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:49 pm

This is definitely not the wave the models are jumping on. It is the wave behind it.

Please note this wave will be nearing the islands in 72 hours.

They are picking up on the wave nearest to africa.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=072hr

#232 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:51 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:Hey luis, where's a good source for latitude and longitude maps?? I can't tell by looking at the satellite pics what position 35w is at..., sorry....

Hereis the TWD map with the wave they are talking about at 35 west.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

ishop · #233 Postby **ishop** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:55 pm

Sorry if this has already been asked I am a novice.

Somehow I think the 2 waves are combining..
Will one beat the other? Or is it back to basics for me?

ishop · #234 Postby **ishop** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:56 pm

Wait I meant the models seem to saying the waves are combining yes?

#235 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:02 pm

18Z GFS is picking up on this wave and developing some stuff behind it.

It could get very active here in the next few weeks.

EDIT to say it is picking up on this wave.

ConvergenceZone · #236 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:29 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:Hey luis, where's a good source for latitude and longitude maps?? I can't tell by looking at the satellite pics what position 35w is at..., sorry....

oops nevermind Luis, for some reason the satellite feeds I was using wasn't showing the lat/long, but I noticed the one you posted has what I was looking for, so thanx anyway....

ConvergenceZone · #237 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:30 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Hey luis, where's a good source for latitude and longitude maps?? I can't tell by looking at the satellite pics what position 35w is at..., sorry....

Hereis the TWD map with the wave they are talking about at 35 west.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

thanks!

SWFLA_CANE · #238 Postby **SWFLA_CANE** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:27 pm

It appears the models are devloping one or in gfs case two waves and turing them north into fish.

HurricaneMaster_PR · #239 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:29 pm

Latest TAFB Forecast for the next 48 hours:

ConvergenceZone · #240 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:42 pm

SWFLA_CANE wrote:It appears the models are devloping one or in gfs case two waves and turing them north into fish.

very possible. If by chance the wave at 35W develops though, it won't be a fish. It's going to keep on plowing westward. Maybe when it gets into the Carib we will have something.

Central Atlantic Wave,Midway Between Africa and L Antilles

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